BREAKING NEWS: In Portugal's Publico paper today ...

[Roy Hersh]

It was announced that 2015 will NOT be a generally declared vintage for Port. Dirk Niepoort is an outlier saying that he is definitely declaring and his Bioma is great too. But others, not so much in terms of agreement of their own Ports. Yes, I am blown away as this to me was as much a no-brainer as 2011. I tasted several cask samples in their infancy last harvest and was quite impressed by the material and structure of the Ports.

It is still early, but when I asked this question of a producer, they looked at me funny ... hinting that no, they would not be declaring.

So what are they thinking ... 2016 is going to be better?

[Eric Ifune]

Then a year to buy SQVP's?

[Andy Velebil]

If correct it doesn't surprise me. I know a lot of producers who were really happy with 2016.


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[Jasper A.]

I heard a month ago from 2 major Port brands that their 2015 port was lacking acidity (i guess to much heat?). The 2016 was looking really good!

I think there will be many more declarations then 2014 though.

[Al B.]

I did hear from one producer that the wines lost a surprising amount of colour over their first winter, similar to the way the 1975 vintage behaved. Mind you, the 1975 vintage ports are quite tasty right now and seem to be better than they were 5 years ago - or perhaps my tastes have changed and I am enjoying the light, smoky and delicately flavoured ports more than I did in my youth.

2015 looks like it will be a very interesting vintage to follow over the years to come.

[Roy Hersh]

Agreed. Another principal player I was with last weekend, said, (paraphrasing): not so fast, we have not made our decision either way.

Another major player, TFP, is non-committal, but I believe that 2016 will be their choice, I have my reasons, but we shall see in seven weeks. I'd be happy to be wrong here!

Dirk is on the record saying it would be a mistake not to declare the 2015 over the 2016. But he doesn't need anyone's approval and he is just one highly respected, but often singular mind. In this case, I happen to think he is right. If you followed both vintages, the 2015 growing conditions were mostly exemplary and with only a few minor glitches. OTOH, 2016 was fraught with problems, deep into the season; so finding "balanced VPs" will come to be, more based on the quality of winemaking skills. There is further rationale based on empirical observations made while in country. 2003, 2007 and 2011 were not even close to a surprise after what I witnessed and continued to follow during those growing seasons.

So why should I be stupid and go out on a limb for 2015? Clearly, it is because I just don't see that 2016 seemed better ... and that fact is, this has zero to do with Dirk's viewpoint. Actually, I've been saying this pretty much from the moment I returned from the 2015 Port and Douro wine harvest (in posts on this forum) and I've only missed being there for 2004, otherwise, this year will make 14 consecutive vintages. Not a brag, nor does it make me an expert, by any means. But one does get a strong sensibility from these experiences, visiting multiple properties in various areas within the Douro: touching, tasting, viewing triage tables, talking to owners and winemakers, witnessing lagares and treading and tasting samples. I certainly do understand some will think this utterly ridiculous. I am ok with that.

I am putting my money where my mouth is. I have rented a place in Porto from June through early July, with a tasting area and will do my own independent thorough evaluations. If I am wrong, you will all know it -- as I will be the first to say so. I will taste widely, all 2015 SQVPs and VPs that I can arrange to be delivered. I will spend a few weeks tasting them over and over, identically as I did with 2011s and many vintages that came before it. If the majority of houses I approach tell me they are declaring 2016 instead, I will be back in 2018 to undertake the exact same process for another month+ in order to focus on those Ports too. It will be fun to experience a contested pair of vintages, like 1991/1992 as one of the best recent examples of what is known as a split declaration. I am not suggesting that is what will transpire with these two years, however, it is possible and if not, selecting the best Ports from each vintage will be rewarding and informational for others ... from this one man's point of view. And there will be many others to read as well. So, if 2016 winds up better, the scores and tasting notes and expanded commentary will be direct as usual too. Now back to more of the article:

Nonetheless the author said exactly this: "The 2015 harvest is not going to be a "vintage year," but Dirk Niepoort thinks it will be a mistake. Continuing to use Google Translator:

It has already been assumed that there will be only a few Oporto wine companies declaring a classic vintage in 2015. But pending the announcement of the most important groups in the sector, Dirk Niepoort and Fladgate and Symington are wondering how they have doubts, since in his opinion, 2015 is the perfect year.

RH comments: This has NOTHING to do with Dirk's comment, but having seen a fine growing season with just a touch of rain during harvest; to me ... it delivered some excellent material. I think the acidity issue needs to be proven, but we shall see. That was not jan issue from the grapes early on ... or later in the harvest ... or Ports I've tasted so far, granted only a few and obviously way early and not developed enough, or with blending, just solid raw material. So I go out on the limb further ... even if I am absolutely deemed a fool for making a prognosis now. In reality, I made it at the end of the harvest. Obviously, it appears I may be proven wrong either way, as a good number of shippers are clearly on the record that they are not going to declare 2015 over 2016.

The main wine houses in Porto have a difficult decision to make in the coming weeks: whether they declare themselves to be 2015 as a classic vintage or wait another year and declare 2016. It is a difficult decision because they involve many millions of euros. All signs point to the choice of majority to fall in 2016, but there is a company that has already decided to go the other way: Niepoort. Niepoort continues: "I do not know why they're all cutting, but for me it's clear that 2015 is a great, great year, the best I've ever seen. The year 2016 does not remind the devil. It was born crooked in the flowering and continued crooked in the vintage, although it improved in the end. The wines are more mature, more concentrated, more to the taste of the English, but do not have the balance and perfection of the wines of 2015, "says Dirk Niepoort.

No other category of Port wine is as profitable as the Vintage Port (a one-crop wine produced in years of exceptional quality and aging bottle). It can begin to be commercialized after two years and, being classic (designation that gives to the elaboration of vintage Port with the main marks of the companies of the sector) reaches fabulous profit margins. It costs as much to produce as an LBV, for example, but is sold earlier and for a price four to five times higher or even more.

In the last two decades, in particular, the Vintage Port has been an important source of revenue for the major companies in the sector, helping to mitigate the steady drops in sales of the lower categories. What makes this wine famous is the fact that there are only two to three "vintage years" per decade. It's called "vintage year" to the years when there is a generalized statement of classic vintage, involving all the great houses of the sector. In the less good years, the normal thing is to have the declaration of a Single Quinta Port, (vintages produced with grapes of the same property and with the name of this), cheaper.

In the past decade there was widespread classic vintages in 2000, 2003 and 2007. In this, only 2011 was vintage year - by the way, one of the most acclaimed ever. Before the last vintage, it was more or less consensual that the larger houses would declare classic vintage in 2015. But the vintage of 2016 came shuffling everything. The year was one of the most atypical of which there is memory. It rained a lot in the winter and spring, which caused a great outbreak of mildew, and the summer was excessively hot, the hottest since record-keeping. As of September 12 the temperatures dropped sharply and began to rain with great intensity. The sun only came back in full more than a week later, but still in time to save the vintage, which crawled through the month of October. The rain ended up having a miraculous effect, helping to unlock maturation, and the warm, dry weather that followed allowed to increase the concentration of the grapes and make surprisingly good wines.

Winemakers and managers of Porto's main wine houses are now in trouble, torn between the desire to declare classic vintage in 2015, more for economic reasons, and the conviction that the 2016 wines are better. In the case of Sogrape, the option for 2016 is already taken. "The wines of 2015 are good, but I never thought they were extraordinary. The 2016 are not super-structured, but have a fabulous harmony and consistency, "says Luís Sottomayor, oenologist at Casa Ferreirinha.

In the Symington family, which holds the Graham's, Dow's and Warre's brands, among others, there is still no verdict, but the conservative profile of its members may be in favor of 2016. "The 2016 wines are very good, but let's see how they come out this winter, "says Joe Álvares Ribeiro, group administrator, ensuring that the final decision will be made" by the five family members in the evidence room, not in the administration room."

Those in charge of the Fladgate Partnership group remain loyal to the group's tradition of announcing the decision only on April 23, St. George's Day. Because of its recent history, it would not have been surprising if the choice fell back in 2015. The Fladgate Partnership also broke the consensus when, in a landmark decision, it declared vintage in 2009 for Taylor's, Fonseca and Croft houses, having already done so in 2000, 2003 and 2007. But even if this is the option, it is certain and certain that the sector will not live the same euphoria that lived with 2011, the most consensual and applauded vintage of the last decades. Will it be the best? This is an answer that will still take time. What the history of Port wine has taught us is that there are unpromising harvests that turn out to be extraordinary-and vice versa. Who knows if Dirk Niepoort is not being a visionary? It would not be the first time.

I am not afraid of being wrong, nor do I care about being proven right. Getting at the truth of the matter through multiple blind tastings, will provide an unbiased report either way. My methodology will not change now. While I agree with Niepoort about 2015 over 2016, I've disagreed with him in the past and remember some interesting discussions about 2005, after my tastings. A nice year, but we agreed to disagree back then. All of this is just a good story and speculation to some degree, albeit, empirical experience has some merit.

The good news is that this will likely be the single best and possibly most controversial topic surrounding Port for the foreseeable future.

[Eric Menchen]

I'll just have to buy whatever Crasto releases for 2015, be it VP or LBV, as will some of the rest of us on the 2015 PHT1 tour.

[Roy Hersh]

Why is that Eric, do you want to see if you can ascertain the scent of your own feet?