Lucky seven?

[Tom Archer]

As we approach 2007, it is curious to note how lucky the number seven has been for port vintages.

Over the last century we have had widely declared vintages on four occasions - 1917, 1927, 1977 & 1997, and partial declarations on three more - 1947, 1967 & 1987.

Of the other three, 1937 might have been declared, but for the storm clouds of war, leaving only 1907 and 1957 as lame ducks.

Compare this with years ending with the number nine, which has never been widely declared in the last two centuries - statistically, this carries a probability of about one in a thousand.

- Strange!

Tom

[*sweetstuff]

Dear Tom,

May this have something to do with our emotions, and number preferences? The difference between a wide declaration and a partial declaration may not be that much, and if we like the number 7, isn't there a chance that our preference will be the deciding factor?

[Tom Archer]

..but can you think of an example where the wrong year was declared for that reason?

You can argue that some shippers might have declared '47 when they should have declared '48, and '67 instead of '66 - although I've seen no evidence that they actually produced a better wine in the undeclared year.

But the absence of nines is really weird - I can't even find an instance where a nine year would have been declared, but for a superlative adjacent year.

Tom

[Derek T.]

Could it be a reluctance to delcare in the year preceding a change in decade? I'm quite sure that 1999 had absolutely no chance of being decalred in advance of the Millenium vintage (which would have been universally declared even if it was just an average wine) but has the same thing happened at the end of each decade, especiall in the second half of the last century?

Derek