2015 VP's, will you buy?

[Glenn E.]

OK. I confess. I've bought six packs of Vesuvio, Stone Terraces and Noval. It was a tough decision as I also really liked the Cockburn.

Hmm... that reminds me that I should probably pick up a 6-pack of Vesuvio as well. My last 6-pack from them was 2011, and while I don't try to get every vintage I do try to keep the intervals down to 2-3 years. So I'm already late!

[Thomas V]

I have finalized my 2015 VP orders and will stop at this:

1 case of Fonseca Guimaraens 0.75
1 case of Fonseca Guimaraens 0.375
1 case of Quinta do Vesuvio
1 case of Niepoort
3 pack of Graham's Stone Terrace

[Shawn Denkler]

I'm old enough that I'm not buying the 2015s. But it is sad because I know I'm missing some great port. I think the Cockburn centenary should be a great port at a reasonable price. The Symington's probably are trying to show that their ownership is going to make the brand a top one again. With the 200th anniversary I think they are putting extra effort into it. I suggest more people take a look at it.

[Gary Richardson]

I am not buying anything after 2003 for the same reason Yoda did not want to train Luke Skywalker as a Jedi: Too old, he is.

[Christian Gollnick]

I'm sorry... even if I feel not only older than Luke Skywalker but also older than Yoda (especially on Monday mornings) I couldn't resist and bought a few cases of the 2015 Vintage. The problem was Quinta da Roeda. That's how it all started. At GBP 65 per case of 6 bottles in bond I just couldn't resist. I don't know why TFP sells the Roeda so cheap in the UK... and because I have nice memories of amazing visits to Vargellas, I bought them, too. And because David Guimaraens is one of the nicest and funniest guys I know, I bought the Fonseca Guimaraens, too. So, yes, I did the TFP triple... The two other TFP Ports were priced at GBP 115 per case (in bond). I really think at those prices I can't make too much wrong. These wines will not need 40 or 50 years to mature - I would expect them to be nicely matured in 15 years. If I then can still remember where I put the cork-screw, I'm sure I will do enjoy them... And if I can't find the cork-screw anymore, then my children will inherit them...

[Eric Menchen]

At GBP 65 per case of 6 bottles in bond ...

I would find it hard to resist those as well. I wish I could get them here at those prices. Perhaps it is better that I can't.

[Andy Velebil]

Holy cow that's a great price on the Roeda.


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[John Trombley]

None at all, unless I live to be about 99. With my short life expectancy I'll continue to buy the very incredibly fairly-priced supply from the secondary/auction markets and drink them over the next 2 years or whatever. Why would I bypass the 97s and earlier ports now being sold at distress prices for what I think I'll never drink? I'm not an 'investor!'.

[Al B.]

None at all, unless I live to be about 99. With my short life expectancy I'll continue to buy the very incredibly fairly-priced supply from the secondary/auction markets and drink them over the next 2 years or whatever. Why would I bypass the 97s and earlier ports now being sold at distress prices for what I think I'll never drink? I'm not an 'investor!'.

What distress prices? In general, I'm seeing prices for '97 and older ports which are in line with new release prices. It's not until you get to 1970 and older that prices seem to be significantly up on new release pricing.

[John Trombley]

None at all, unless I live to be about 99. With my short life expectancy I'll continue to buy the very incredibly fairly-priced supply from the secondary/auction markets and drink them over the next 2 years or whatever. Why would I bypass the 97s and earlier ports now being sold at distress prices for what I think I'll never drink? I'm not an 'investor!'.

What distress prices? In general, I'm seeing prices for '97 and older ports which are in line with new release prices. It's not until you get to 1970 and older that prices seem to be significantly up on new release pricing.

May I say what look to ME like distress prices, which I sense mean the opposite to you than to me that is from the standpoint of the trade. Look at the price for the lovely 2009 Taylor VP, It distresses me that this VP, which surely deserves to be rated as a high classic, can be purchased for so little, I actually got a half-case a while back for $40/bottle. It's only wines with some special notoriety that get anything like the attention they deserve at auction. Let's agree to disagree, OK!

[Andy Velebil]

None at all, unless I live to be about 99. With my short life expectancy I'll continue to buy the very incredibly fairly-priced supply from the secondary/auction markets and drink them over the next 2 years or whatever. Why would I bypass the 97s and earlier ports now being sold at distress prices for what I think I'll never drink? I'm not an 'investor!'.

What distress prices? In general, I'm seeing prices for '97 and older ports which are in line with new release prices. It's not until you get to 1970 and older that prices seem to be significantly up on new release pricing.

May I say what look to ME like distress prices, which I sense mean the opposite to you than to me that is from the standpoint of the trade. Look at the price for the lovely 2009 Taylor VP, It distresses me that this VP, which surely deserves to be rated as a high classic, can be purchased for so little, I actually got a half-case a while back for $40/bottle. It's only wines with some special notoriety that get anything like the attention they deserve at auction. Let's agree to disagree, OK!

John,
The bolded part of your statement is true of any wine from any region. That is what drives up the prices. Look at any wine or Port and when it gets an amazing score the prices aftermarket go way up. 2011 Dow's is a great example. At auction right now it runs over $200 a bottle on average from what I've seen. The downside is most wines that don't have super high scores tend to sell for what amounts to, after buyer premiums/tax, at least what they originally sold for, give or take a little. So $40 for the 2009, plus a typical 20-25% auction commission and then taxes, is putting that cost at around what it originally sold for. If you bought it "all in" for $40 a bottle then I guarantee you that's not normal auction pricing for that VP and you got a killer deal. Current auction is about $53/bottle, from a fairly reliable auction tracking company.

[Eric Menchen]

What distress prices? In general, I'm seeing prices for '97 and older ports which are in line with new release prices.

I think you nearly answered your own question. I think if you can buy a 1997 for the same price as a 2015, that indicates the 1997 is a bargain given the 18 years of appreciation one would hope for (and associated storage costs).

[John Trombley]

You weren't to know that this is all in the context of a diagnosis of a really bad cancer, and the real observation, not question, is the dynamic dealing with this part of my life, as all else, peacefully and mindfully. All this is why, that me, the non-investor, will continue to explore these same options for what time I'm still drinking them, the less-popular wines that don't have the up-and-down pressure that makes investment profitable. I think market variability is a real organ of wealth generation. We knew here, for example, about the splash the Dow was like to make once released--and that's worth any amount of subscription Roy chooses to ask for, almost, to someone investing. (However, I must admit to stealing a cue from the investors: when I read a retrospective tasting likely to be widely noted in which a well known wine doesn't perform up to expectations, I look for it at auction and often catch it on the down-spiral). But I didn't buy, the Dow and I think for arguable reasons. I've been buying mid-to near top-quality sherries (under $100, most around $30-50, that would on sheer quality compete with any of the top premier crus in Pulignyt by the recognized makers, and you know what they can go for.) Actually I admit I bought a half-bottle of Toneles EVV Moscatel this week, because Peter Ruhrberg twisted my arm (smile). Same with German wines, although I avoid the overhyped 'boutique' Grosses Gewächs, as Eric knows, and either buy true late harvest from makers I've known personally,to age them myself or buy them when they are nearly mature at auction. There are other small niches here and there, and they will never lack. Hey, after 40 years of nonplaying of the wine investor market II've got the best of both worlds--I keep my money and drink some astonishingly good wines. Alas, I can't invite my newbie friends to my purpose-built cellar and show off my Beckstoffer or DRC, so I'm left out of a lot of awed conversations while bottles are being examined. But I actually own, and use, a corkscrew. And I can buy wines again that I have already fallen in love with via previous ownership. Enough self-conceit.

[Al B.]

What distress prices? In general, I'm seeing prices for '97 and older ports which are in line with new release prices.

I think you nearly answered your own question. I think if you can buy a 1997 for the same price as a 2015, that indicates the 1997 is a bargain given the 18 years of appreciation one would hope for (and associated storage costs).

That's fair.

I've been buying port for a few decades now and am as opportunistic as everyone else on FTLOP. When I think of distressed sales, I'm thinking of prices which are well below initial release. If I think about Vesuvio 1997 as an example, I bought some in September 1999 for £30. Today I could buy a bottle for £29. Buying today instead of 18 years ago would have saved me £13.50 in storage fees and if I'd invested the money instead I could buy 3½ bottles today for every bottle I bought in 1999.

But I don't feel that £29 is a distressed price today. It's a lousy price for anyone who bought Vesuvio 1997 as an investment, but few of us did. Most of us bought it to drink or to give to our children. It's definitely a buyer's market today so anyone who wants to buy to drink in the short term is in the right place at the right time — but good for them. Port is a drink that's meant to be shared and bring pleasure to others. If my children decide to sell off what's left of my cellar when I'm no longer around to enjoy it, that's fine by me. And if my kids only get back what I paid for my port then good for the folks who were in the right place at the right time to buy it and enjoy it. With luck, the folks who buy and drink my port will all be people on FTLOP (or TPF).

Now £8 per bottle for Morgan 1991 vintage port — that was a distressed price for a pretty tasty port...

[Henry Sterling]

My 2015 vintage en primeur orders:

Niepoort
Niepoort Bioma
Vesuvio
Dow's Ribeira

That will probably be all. I look forward to the late 2030s!

[Roy Hersh]

Henry, as I have tried all of those, will only say that you have mostly very good selections there; some better than others.


Someone mentioned the Roeda above. I had my 2nd bottle evaluation of that Port recently. I'll wait to hear what others from this Forum have to say. I am not going to release my 2015 report until late October. As those of you whom have followed FTLOP know, I don't really care that other journos beat me to the punch, that doesn't matter to me at all, as I don't look to influence the market on what to purchase. While producers and subscribers have told me I'm crazy, (or worse!) I prefer to taste as widely as possible and as many times as I can ... and therefore, with 3 more weeks in country (for a total of 10 weeks in PT this year) at least when my report comes out, I will know I've done my best to be thorough. I have read two reports that clearly have done just quick pass throughs, stand up tasting or at best, sat in front of producers to get their impressions. I just can't do that and feel good about putting that type of report together.

One thing I have read in this thread, from my good friend John T. and others, is that buying 2015 Vintage Ports is futile because of their age, later in life. Many 2015s are EXTREMELY approachable in their youth. So I can only think of a small percentage of them that would not be wonderful to drink over the next decade. Now if you really don't like gorgeous young fruit forward Vintage Ports, I'll shut up now. Otherwise, as soon as you see any 2015 in the marketplace, likely this autumn, grab the first one you see and have at it and you'll see what I am talking about.

[Henry Sterling]

Henry, as I have tried all of those, will only say that you have mostly very good selections there; some better than others.

I did see that you perhaps haven't rated the Bioma too highly?

[Roy Hersh]

Please don't judge by the very little I've mentioned about it.

[Henry Sterling]

Fair enough!