The half life of VP

[Tom Archer]

OK the bottling lines will probably now have finished (or nearly so) the 2003 VP's

So a question:

Of all the bottles filled, how many years will elapse before there are just half that number left, and how many years before that number halves again?

An impossible question, obviously.

Looking at the auction scene and dealer stocks, I get the impression that the "half life" is about ten years, or maybe a little less.

This would suggest that of all the bottles from a vintage, only about one in a thousand will make it to be a century old.

- just a uselsss observation!!

Tom

[Stuart Chatfield]

Not useless; it is my impression that the half-life (a good way to explain it) is decreasing as time goes on.

That is one cause of why:

1. older vintages are much cheaper in real terms than new releases, and

2. why the above situation will not be the case in twenty years' time (unless, of course the half life continues to decrease!)

[Tom Archer]

...is decreasing as time goes on

It certainly looks as though this is the case, given the relative prices of new and 20 year old wines.

There also seems to be a risk that the half life of older wines will increase if more bottles are kept as "collectibles" rather than drinking prospects - something that seems to have happened to madeira.

Tom