The Rise & Fall of the Euro

[Roy Hersh]

From a week to ten days ago when the Euro was around 1.45 to the USD, today it has dropped to 1.37. I love when that happens and hope it continues. Timing is great too.

I wish I understood why it is weakening though? Does anyone have any idea why such a sudden and steep drop?

[Luke W]

This week looks like Italy's debt problem is dragging on the Euro.

[Andy Velebil]

You beat me to it Roy, I was just about to post the same. I feel bad for the economies of all of us, but I am happy the dollar is gaining strength against the Euro. If it will only get back to the 1.24 or less range before October

[Tom D.]

I wish I understood why it is weakening though? Does anyone have any idea why such a sudden and steep drop?

Today's Greek GDP number came in very negative as did unemployment which is at a very high level. This means growing unrest and lower tax revenues. This is driving home the unlikelihood Greece will ever be able to pay back its debt. This is creating stronger dissension among creditors, particularly Germany (their key man at the European Central Bank resigned today), about how far they are willing to go in bailing out Greek sovereign debt (and by implication, Italy and other Eurozone members facing similar problems). This creates real doubt about the viability of the European Union in its present form, and increases investor concerns about the health of banks that have Greek and other Eurpoean sovereign debt on their books, especially European banks. This could mean a credit crunch and a wave of bank problems in Europe. So no one in their right mind wants to be holding Euros, so they are selling them, or shorting them to hedge their exposure.

[Russ K]

US dollar is also strengthening last two months against pretty much anything....not a lot, but it helps...

[Roy Hersh]

Ok, I must be a real dummy. The Euro hit 1.32 to the U$D while we were in Portugal last week. Ever since it has been increasing with speed and as of yesterday had gone up nearly .05 since the aforementioned recent low.

Slovakia decided to vote against the bailout of Greece and other weaklings in the EU yesterday and the Euro continues its upward spiral. Can someone please explain this to me?

[Roy Hersh]

Wow, at this very moment, the Euro has breached a pivotal price point and is now at 1.29845 vs. the U$D.

[Roy Hersh]

So the question remains:

Which does the Euro hit first ... 1.35 or 1.25, now that it is hovering right at 1.30 for nearly a week?

[Andy Velebil]

I'm hoping it goes down, but I have not the slightest idea which way it will go.

[Roy Hersh]

Are you talking about the Euro?

[Roy Hersh]

Down below 1.27 at the moment.

[Marc J.]

It looks as though France is going to have their credit rating downgraded in the near future. I'd expect the Euro to take another hit over the next couple of weeks.

[Brian C.]

S&P doesn't have a lot of credibility, so I don't think they are going to move the markets very much.

[Bryan H.]

I have a bank account in Portugal and held enough Euros in it that it would be painful to lose them, or too much value. Not enough to hurt badly, but enough that I'd not be happy about it. I just sold them for USD last week--too much downside compared to the upside. Things do not look good from here, and my friends in Portugal report worry and uncertainty. Could be a rough ride for the Euro near term.

[Eric Menchen]

Betting in the "Who can screw things up more?" contest isn't fun.

[Roy Hersh]

Especially since Bryan is now seeing a strengthened Euro at 1.31 today, compared to when he sold. Predictions, even by the experts are fraught with peril when it comes to the money markets. I follow them closer than most, several times a day and still can't begin to explain why they move the way they do. The movement has very little to do with logic and more to do with emotion. That is sad, but seemingly true.

[Glenn E.]

The movement has very little to do with logic and more to do with emotion. That is sad, but seemingly true.

That's often true of the stock market as well.

[Roy Hersh]

Currently at 1.335, it has ranged between 1.25 and 1.35 so far this year. I liked it better at 1.25.

[David Spriggs]

I'm glad I bought some Euros back at the 1.27-1.28 range. It seemed risky at the time, but I thought that I should lock in that price for the FTLOP tour.

[Roy Hersh]

The Euro has tumbled gently this week receding from last week's high just over 1.344 to a modest 1.307 at the moment. Where will it end up? I am hoping it stays right where it's at for our trip to Portugal next week!