End of season auction report

[Tom Archer]

The London auctions finished their season at Sotheby's today. There is one provincial auction (that I know about) in August, otherwise it's shut down until late September.

After some good value sales in the early spring, prices took off across the board, before returning to reality this month.

At the pre-war end of the scale, the first half of the year saw more Noval '31 sold than all other bottles put together - including 3 NN's, which set a new world record for port at Christies.

The '48's are now trading at a clear margin to the 45's, but with much variation still.

The meteoric rise of the '66's looks to have peaked and settled a little - I feel certain that prices will be better next year when the 40th birthday market has gone. In the meantime, Cockburn and Martinez '67 have both been sold for high prices - stocking up for next year presumably..

The prize for biggest mover in percentage terms over the last year now looks to go to the '75's - Taylor has gone from a typical sale price of £180 to over £300.

'80 still looks like bargain territory, although not that much sold of late.

Do I sense a lack of reverence for the '94's? Most commentators put this vintage in the top half dozen of the century, but the market is not really reflecting this.

Meanwhile the vendors are still struggling to find buyers for many of the '97's

After riding very high, Fonseca's prices are now looking more mainstream, Dow prices are still good value, though not much sold of late.

What will the autumn bring?

Tom

[Jay Powers]

Thanks Tom!

I have been wondering about the 97's myself, for example the Fonseca, which was highly rated by numerous analysts, is selling for dirt cheap right now. I wonder if this is a perception of the ageability of the wine (and the entire vintage perhaps)...or overstock and marketing vs. the 2000 and 2003 vintages?

I'm glad to hear you think the prices of the 66's should go down next year, but you put us in a sticky position....to buy now (prices may go up due to lower availability due to sales over the past year) or wait for the birthdays to end and prices to go down. A tricky question for those of us with few 66 and 63 vintages looking to increase our cellers.

I have also noticed that the prices for the 94's seem pretty reasonable (with the exception of Fonseca and Taylor). Hard to understand (although appreciated). I wonder if anyone has ideas which might explain this apparent lack of interest. Do the high prices (and ratings) on Fonseca/Taylor drive people to focus on those wines, leaving the remainder to suffer as "inferior" (i.e. not rated 100)?

Your analysis is greatly appreciated. The more exposure we get to this kind of analysis the more we can try to apply some logic to our purchases and get some good bargins . Thanks!

Jay

[Tom Archer]

I think the '97's have become a bit of a Cinderella - overshadowed by the two great vintages of '94 & '00 in much the same way that the '66's were sandwiched between '63 & '70.

Commentators seem agreed that this is going to be a great vintage for the long haul, I have seven cases at present, and plan to acquire another five or six, covering all the major shippers.

My stock of '66's is pitifully small, but I'm holding off buying for now.

The only downside to waiting is that many vendors pick their moment to sell, and have birthday anniversaries in mind - very little '66 was auctioned last year, and very little '55 is being sold this year - so I don't expect to see that much '66 on the lists next year.

There is a certain blind loyalty to Taylor that inflates prices beyond it's comparative worth - put simply, for the merchants, it's the best known name - and that sells stock.

Less well known names can offer superb value for money, particularly when a second division name has produced a first division wine - such as Smith Woodhouse '77. The market does not properly reward a lesser known shipper for an isolated top wine.

Tom

[Dave Johnson]

Tom,
great auction summary !

[Roy Hersh]

Well done Tom.

I like your comparison of the 1966 vintage to the 1997. Both were tannic beasts during their youth (at least from what I have read of the '66 when they were born). I agree the '97s will receive their due in a few decades when their prices will look silly compared to the bookend vintages of '94/'00.

Although there is certainly a premium priced asked for Taylor and Fonseca, as well as for Graham's to a lesser degree. However, I think that the most recognized name in the Port trade is still Sandeman. I am not talking about qualitatively or anything beyond name "brand" recognition around the globe. But that is just my opinion.

Thanks for your report.

[Roy Hersh]

Jay asks some very poignant questions.

I think that the '63 and '66 prices will not come down dramatically after the large sell off (of the latter vintage) for this year's celebrations. There is really not a large stock of the 1966s left, even in Gaia. So unless you are willing to pay for these well-aged and ready to drink beauties, you may want to reassess your position. Retailers that I am in touch with do not keep stocks of '66 on hand although they might be somewhat scarce, they are certainly nowhere near the "rare" category.

From where I stand, I believe the vintage to focus purchases on is 1970. This was a great vintage and the Ports are drinking well now and will still improve from here and the top half dozen or so, really have excellent upside potential. The price is right and there is no immediate clamoring for that vintage for a 40th birthday or anniversary, yet.

OTOH, 1977 will be in high demand next year as it is the best known vintage ending in a 7 that is currently drinkable, although traditionalists still view it as a youngster (if not a gamble except for some big names). There are still some well priced '77s on the market though you'll have be willing to try some of the 2nd tier names which made great wines that year, for instance Dow.

Of course there are a few very fine 1967s out there as Tom mentioned two, (although I have two that I prefer more than either the Cockburn's or Martinez) and the traders are scooping them up quietly in expectation of next year's "windfall." They are still mostly below the radar though.

There are vintages worth buying for near term consumption as the wines are ripe in terms of quality and pricing. 1995 always comes to mind for that purpose as does 1987 and to a lesser degree 1991. Also seek out the top 3 or 4 -- 1980 VPs. Some sleepers from that under appreciated vintage can still be found at compelling prices. You just need to know where to hunt.

The answer is not always at auction.

[Stuart Chatfield]

Really useful and a few points of note.

I suspect that the 31 boom is caused by the 75th anniversary market. Easy to miss that anniversary unless you are trying to get on for such an occasion Luckily I've got until Feb '07 so I hope there is a post-anniversary fall.

Re: 66s I wonder if it is us and this site that is ramping them? There's half a dozen of us regular London FLOP members and we all seem agreed that the 63s are getting washed up earlier than predicted and the 66s are better. I wouldn't over-play our involvement but we all seem to like 66s and considering that only a few cases come on each month, between us I bet at least one of us has put in a bid for each parcel, raising each parcel by one increment. Maybe the casual market is coming round to the 66s as being better than 63 now and the 40-year thing is only part of it? I hope not.

Taylor 75 is a funny one. You're right - about a year ago I was getting it between GBP15-20 per bottle. One of my all-time favourites, and no-one else wanted it ....not so now, so need to watch that one. Has everyone suddenly re-evaluated the 75s? I love the Taylor 75 but there must be another secret admirer out there whose keeping his head down (but not his auction paddle!)

I also love SW 77 and agree that thst is now falling in price - another strange phenomenon I can't fathom...still good for me.

And yes, 97 and the 80s are still the best buy. I know the 80s were not the best decade but even one-off gems like Dow 80 (that we all like) are going for well under GBP300 per case.

[Tom Archer]

I wonder if it is us and this site that is ramping them?

We shouldn't underestimate our influence, particularly when the lots afford the prospect of good drinking, but would be difficult for merchants to retail at a premium.

Take the last Christies sale, where there was a case of Vargellas '91 (lot 398). This wine is uncommon in the UK, but has been very well reviewed by Broadbent.

However, it is an SQVP, so it would be unlikely to attract bids from merchants much above £15/bottle - £180/case (+BP)

I pitched at £200 - but someone went the extra mile and pitched £220 - £242 inc. BP

This is a good price for someone who intends to drink the wine themselves, but a little high for a merchant to pay.

Did someone who uses this site buy it? If so, our combined efforts may have lifted the hammer price by over 20%

Tom

[Stuart Chatfield]

Take the last Christies sale, where there was a case of Vargellas '91 (lot 398). This wine is uncommon in the UK, but has been very well reviewed by Broadbent.

Tom

Phew, another one I picked up much cheaper last year on MB's recommendation . However, I thought a rare difference of opinion between me and him as I didn't rate it. Still got 10 left though! And you're right - it is rarely seen. Who's got it all?

[Tom Archer]

Who's got it all

I think Broadbent said it was held for late release - so there may be a stack of cases in VNG still.

I suspect that part of the logic behind the late release of SQVP's is to enable the shippers to provide supermarkets with mature VP in the quantities they demand - and usually in cheap cardboard cartons to keep the price down.

Tesco are currently running Vargellas '96 - given the number of stores they have, they have probably brought over at least one full 40ft container load.

But this wine will be mostly sold by the bottle, and mostly drunk before the year end. What remains will be thinly scattered in cupboards across the country, and extremely little will re-emerge on the market.

So while the wine is plentiful now, it will probably be very hard to find in five year's time.

Did Tesco run Varg' '91 five years ago?

Tom

[Stuart Chatfield]

Did Tesco run Varg' '91 five years ago?

Tom

The last vintage I saw on their shelves was the 88 about 2 years ago.