Andy Velebil wrote:Glenn E. wrote:
But realistically, sales is the best measure of rarity because it determines how much of each product is actually available to consumers in any given year.
But again, you're now defining rare as to what is available to the consumer. Port is somewhat unique as certain ones have to age a really long time by law before you can release them. That means you have to make tons of it to keep the supply train rolling year after year after year. So if your defining it as what is released each year to buy, then yes it very well may be the rarest.
I can think of only two ways to define rarest that make any sense. Sales, as that determines availability (read: rarity) to the consumer trying to make a purchase, and total volume anywhere in the entire world.
By either of those definitions, Colheita is rarer than Vintage Port.
Counting only the volume on hand at the producer is an apples to oranges comparison. VP isn't kept on hand at the producer; Colheita is (well... more on that below). If you're using that as your definition of "rarest" it's a convoluted definition.
However, stop and think how much single year tawny's are made and kept, only years later it's blended away to make various types of wood aged Ports. So from production, I would argue there is more single year tawny's made than VP made each year therefor it's not as rare. Simply as producers have to keep lots on hand to make various wood aged products. When it comes to VP, you've got 2-3, maybe 4 times a decade, then a small amount of SQVP's in the better years between. Not a whole lot is kept back, it's made and mostly sold off.
First, those stocks that are held back are not finished product. They're components that are being aged until they're ready to be sold as finished product. Yes, they're registered through the IVDP as Colheita, but that's a registration of convenience - you can make 20-yr old out of Colheita, but you cannot make Colheita out of 20-yr old. Ergo, you declare everything as Colheita until you know how you're going to use it. As you yourself have pointed out, Noval does something similar with Nacional - it's registered just about every year, but some of that ends up being declassified and used in other products and some of it is allegedly even still aging and may one day be used as TWAIOA or Colheita.
Second, the bulk of those stocks that the producers keep in their lodges are not destined to be made into Colheita - they're destined to be made into TWAIOA. Counting them as Colheita is disingenuous at best because that's not ultimately what they're going to be.
Third, production is gated by storage space. Storage space is gated by sales. So I'd wager that despite the volumes of components that the producers have on hand, the amount that they make in any given year is simply enough to replace that which was blended and/or sold. They can't produce mass quantities of Colheita year after year as you imply unless they're also selling it to make room for more, and the IVDP sales data says they're not selling it. Ergo, they aren't producing it either.
Production is what matters as that determines how much of each product is available, ever, whether it is sold immediately or held back to be sold later. We're not given production numbers, but I'd be willing to bet that yearly production of VP is 2x or 3x the yearly production of Colheita (matching yearly sales volumes).
I would disagree for the reasons stated above. The interesting thing about ruby Ports is they pretty much know what is going to be a VP, or has the potential, at harvest. Which isn't much in the scheme of what is actually produced each year. The rest is shipped off to be something else.
The math doesn't work out for what you're saying above. There just isn't sufficient lodge space in all of Portugal for what you're saying to work. At some point they reach their storage cap, and at that point input can no longer be greater than output. Since they've been making Port for hundreds of years, I'd wager that they reached that point long, long ago.
Subject to lodge expansion, of course, but that's very slow and insignificant for our purposes.
The amount of VP "retained" in consumers' cellars easily dwarfs the amount of Colheita "retained" by producers.
Now this may be plausable...at least in the past when people and institutions (which seem to be selling more than they're buying nowdays) bought and kept large cellars. Then again, once you add in what the Casa do Douro holds alone, I'm pretty sure it's far more than all the VP in peoples cellars around the world. Heck, Warre's has one vat that holds about 178091 bottles. Add up all the other colheita holdings and that a whole lot of Port sitting around for awhile.
You're still calling those unfinished components Colheita. Until it's bottled and made available, it just isn't. Either that or we should be counting every grape grown every year as VP until they actually declare it because, well, it
could be made into VP. The fact that it's
probably going to be made into something else doesn't matter to your line of reasoning, right?
I don't buy the Casa do Douro argument, either, as those stocks are also most likely going to be used as components in TWAIOA and not Colheita. If they were good enough to be Colheita, people would already be selling them as Colheita. I don't believe I've ever had something from the Casa do Douro stocks, but we both know people who have and from what I've heard those stocks aren't viable as Colheitas.