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Re: NFL Conference Championships

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:05 am
by Glenn E.
Bradley Bogdan wrote:
Glenn E. wrote:
Moses Botbol wrote:or one of the best 4th down conversion teams missing two in a row?
Makes you wonder, doesn't it? What if they'd kicked FGs on both of those 4th downs...
The late game 4th down call was totally the right one. The offense hadn't been great, if you kick a FG you still need a TD anyway, it was the best odds call for success.
Oh, at the time, I think they were both correct. And the 2nd one was only the right call because the first one failed. Had the first one been a FG, then to be correct the second one would have switched to a FG also.

With 20/20 hindsight... if they'd both been FGs... NE wins with a FG on that last drive instead of needing a 2-pt (missed) and then an onside.

The interesting thing about both calls is that you can pretty much just say +3 points for each and nothing else changes if they'd kicked FGs. A FG also results in a change of possession, and in both of these cases that change of possession would have likely resulted in roughly the same field position if not worse. It's pretty rare to see "what if" scenarios that are so easily parsed. Pretty clearly, those two play calls by Belichick cost the Patriots 6 points in what was ultimately an 8-pt game.

Some wacko Patriots fans are going off on Gostkowski for missing the extra point, but their ire is misdirected. Belichick cost them the game.

Re: NFL Conference Championships

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:59 am
by Moses Botbol
Bradley Bogdan wrote:
Glenn E. wrote:
Moses Botbol wrote:or one of the best 4th down conversion teams missing two in a row?
Makes you wonder, doesn't it? What if they'd kicked FGs on both of those 4th downs...
The late game 4th down call was totally the right one. The offense hadn't been great, if you kick a FG you still need a TD anyway, it was the best odds call for success.
Yes, the call was correct, but them not making it was the point. They usually do and have a history of clutch plays.

Re: NFL Conference Championships

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:01 pm
by Eric Menchen
Glenn E. wrote:Belichick cost them the game.
The Denver defense cost them the game.

Re: NFL Conference Championships

Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:36 pm
by David Spriggs
Eric Menchen wrote:The Denver defense cost them the game.
I'll agree with that. They were just out played by Denver at every opportunity. Oh... and very conservative game play by Denver as well - meaning trying at all times to minimize the possibility of mistakes and turnovers. Great game management by Payton and the coaching staff.