Have you, or do you plan to buy any 2003 Vintage Ports?

KenBirman · Post by **KenBirman** » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:12 am

Roy, while your point is a good one and argues against buying old bottles on eBay, I don't think it really applies to purchases of port out of bonded storage in the UK. Which is how I buy older bottles.

JohnG · Post by **JohnG** » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:58 pm

It is interesting to see how much heat the en primeur debate generates.

This evening, I opened a bottle of Mersault bought en primeur from a very respetable Burgundy specialist; it had gone off and tasted like battery acid. Another bottle from the same case had also gone. So what price provenance?

Now I am not saying that I have never had an off bottle before, but this tale illustrates that there are no guarantees. It seems to me that common sense should apply; if you see a wine that is too cheap to be true, then there is probably a problem. That is different from looking out for a wine which is advantageously priced.

After all, there is a lot of wine out there to drink! For my part, I have no intention of trading or buying to invest. In my twenty years of collection it has all been there to drink. There is a lot of good advice to be had. I think that one should be patient, listen to advice and buy carefully.

John

Post by **Andy Velebil** » Sun Aug 28, 2005 2:39 pm

I think one must be careful when using the current prices on old ports to compare with new ones. Yes, old ports are at good prices right now. Port was not all that popular until recently. But what happens in 10, 20, or 30 years when the popularity of ports (possibly) continues to increase and thus prices will increase. Plus, if popularity continues, think of how hard it would be to even find a good VP that is 20-30 years old.

Although I have only been collecting for a short time, I recall people saying how easy it was to find old and new wines at cheap prices. THen the popularity of wine increased dramatically. Prices went up and most were sold out before hitting the shelves.

Besides, part of the fun is buying on release, waiting patiently, then enjoying the good stuff when its ready.

David Spriggs · Post by **David Spriggs** » Sun Aug 28, 2005 8:59 pm

Alan Rath wrote:Unless I see some reasonable discounts on futures, I'll now be waiting to taste for myself when the wines are released, and hope the prices remain at or below where they are.

Same here! I'm at the point that I really want to taste them and decide for myself.

-Dave-

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Mon Aug 29, 2005 4:52 am

While we all like a bargain, I regard my collection of VP to be a hobby - not an investment.

I would be surprised if the 2003 en primeur prices are followed by significantly higher prices in the future. I tend to the view that this year's VP prices are a little bit high.

There are plenty of consumers who will indulge 30 pounds ($50) on a bottle for a special occasion, but the number who are prepared to spend double that is very much smaller.

There is also a lot of good unfortified wine at very good prices around, which is raising consumer expectation, but not encouraging them to spend more.

Post by **Roy Hersh** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:43 am

Victor,

It is my opinion that the Q d Noval regular bottling of 2003 is like 1997 in that it is in the very upper tier of the vintage. I prefer the Nacional's from cask of all three other vintages (again ... from cask) yet I believe the Nacional from '03s greatness, will appear way down the road. It is still a very fine, big and tight wine nonetheless.

Andy wrote:

Besides, part of the fun is buying on release, waiting patiently, then enjoying the good stuff when its ready.

Amen brother! When one opens back-to-back bottles of a corked VP purchased at auction years before, you quickly learn the merits of patience.

Dave wrote:

Same here! I'm at the point that I really want to taste them and decide for myself.

Reading other's TNs is fine while wines are still in cask, but as soon as they hit the shelves I believe the best thing to do, is buy a bottle of the five or six wines you are considering purchasing by the case. Then either hold a comparative tasting for your friends (let them chip in, if money is an issue) OR drink them individually over a 2-3 day period to see how they evolve. There is nothing, repeat nothing, like making your own evaluations! Afterall, as is the case with Suckling or anybody else, my tasting notes are just that ... mine. Your mileage may vary!

Tom wrote:

While we all like a bargain, I regard my collection of VP to be a hobby - not an investment.
I would be surprised if the 2003 en primeur prices are followed by significantly higher prices in the future. I tend to the view that this year's VP prices are a little bit high.

I believe, that investments should be made in real estate, equity funds or bonds and other durable goods. Even artwork, jewels and furs are gifts of a personal nature and should be left out of a portfolio. But to purchase wine, with the intent of selling it at a profit is something that I look at with disdain. Not only does it create a tighter supply, but also drives up prices for the average consumer. Buy wine to drink and enjoy with friends and loved ones or even alone ... but wine investors

, please put your money into other areas of appreciation!

By the way, I was a bit surprised by the pre-release prices of the 2003s. Although I think they will earn their value in time, I have a feeling that there is a lot of skepticism out there, and rightfully so. With the small production though, when the quality is realized, (now or later) scarcity will be an issue. The general economic atmosphere always impinges upon these dynamics, around release of any new vintage (of Port). Not in direct comparison, but qualitatively speaking, I don't see much difference between this vintage and that of 1994 (although the wines themselves are very different).

The price gap between the excellent 1992s and the 1994s took my breath away, especially when purchasing case lots. There seemed to be an even larger rise then, than between 2000 and 2003, even in retrospect. The difference is that Vintage Port was in it's all-time glory in terms of sales growth back upon release in 1996. Along with the meteoric rise in America's budding love for Vintage Port, there was a very hot world economy and the cigar craze driving buyers like never before. Those dynamics are missing now, so the prices seem even more inflated. I know that the Port trade does not believe that to be the case. Judge for thyself. Try the wine and see what you think.

Richard Henderson · Post by **Richard Henderson** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:51 pm

Does it seem a little strange that this topic has 46 replies but over 900 "views"? Is there a little 2003 port voyeurism going on here?

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 3:48 pm

Well Richard, I'm not shy, and if this forum enriches the minds of others then so much the better.

However, It would be nice to see more participation from those who work full time in the industry - maybe they number amongst the "viewers"...

- Come on down Mr Symington - we'd love to hear your views!!

Post by **Roy Hersh** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:46 am

I don't know how many are now watching this site, but well over 100 members of the Port trade are recipients of the FTLOP newsletter, as well as a few very well known wine ciritics and journalists. I can't seem to get them to participate as they possibly would view it as a conflict of interest. But I can assure you this:

Given that about half of the participants so far are from the US market and that the UK is the second most represented country ... those in the Port trade, certainly have a vested interest to read our opinions, esp. on this particular topic!

Stuart Chatfield · Post by **Stuart Chatfield** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:46 am

I am not sure I agree with contributors trying to split port investors from port lovers. I'd say I'm both. I don't invest in the sense that I doubt I'll ever sell any port I buy. I will always end up drinking it myself (or maybe sharing some with friends and family!) However, I do buy port that I don't intend to drink now, which does mean an investment decision. Those of you who buy '03 for you own consumption (except those who rate provenance highly) are investors because you're betting that the cost plus storage for 20 years will be cheaper than the price in 2025 plus the profit for the investor who has "bet" on it now. Those who care about provenance are paying a lot for it, but it is an understandable decision.

If you read an auction catalogue carefully and look between the lines you can weed out the bottles that might have been "in someone's kitchen", as I think Emma Dalton put it elsewhere. Where port is sold in large parcel lots from bonded storage there must be a very high chance it has come from a place where it would have been stored if you had bought in bond yourself 20 years before. Ken Birman is right that port from such places, even at 20 years plus, is almost certain to have been well stored and is not like odd kitchen bottles from ebay.

I will continue by investing in port from the start of its drinking window (20 years plus), for my own future enjoyment. However, I know that this is an investment decision as I'm betting my other investments (shares etc.) will do better than port over 20 years. I might be proved wrong

.

That said, I think there is no long-term advantage to us in '03 prices falling or the producers getting stuffed. Although, as I understand it, the Parker/US effect on Bordeaux since '82 has made in bond Bordeaux more expensive for us in the UK, it has ensured lots of good investment there over the last 20 years that has improved the quality for all of us. I hope the port producers can make good profits, do well and invest accordingly. However, I think the merchants or retailers or whatever they are called in the UK/US must suffer the storage costs and not us. It is cheaper for them.

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:15 am

Stuart, there is a little bit of magic that you need to factor in.

Cellars are wonderfully quiet stress-free places, neither cold in winter nor hot in summer, and always just a little bit musty, but not unpleasantly so. And as often as not, they are the private domain of a single person, while the rest of the family runs amok above.

Lurking within these places lie undusted cases and bottles.

The discipline of buying a case and then stowing it your cellar, patiently waiting for several years before you even lift the lid, is strangely pleasurable, as is the experiance of opening a case that YOU laid down years before.

Stuart Chatfield · Post by **Stuart Chatfield** » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:26 am

Re cellars:

Could not agree more and I wish I had one. However, for most of us using a combination Eurocaves, Octavian, the Wine Society etc. it is just too costly or impractical for that romance.

I agree so much that I recently tried to move house to a disused pub purely because it had two cellars (one was 400 years old). My wife did not seem to see the benefits

.

I would like to have inherited an ancestor's cellar and contents to draw mature bottles from. I would then have willingly replaced the mature ones I quaffed with with '03s for my descendents.

If I win the lottery or get a pay rise I'll give in, buy a big house with a romantic dusty cellar and fill it with young port. However, my means do not allow my love of port now and my likely love of it in 20 years time to be simultaneously funded out of current resources. The current requirements have to win.

simon Lisle · Post by **simon Lisle** » Fri Sep 02, 2005 1:49 pm

Stuart i can empthise with you

simon Lisle · Post by **simon Lisle** » Fri Sep 02, 2005 1:55 pm

The only good thing is Stuart i have a house near Bordeaux in the Lot et Garonne and i can't afford a house with a cellar here.The one in France however is excellent but i store only a few ports there.

Frederick Blais · Post by **Frederick Blais** » Fri Sep 02, 2005 1:56 pm

I've place my order last week. So far it will be

3 Niepoort
2 Noval
3 Vesuvio
2 Quinta do Vale Meo
2 Quinta do Roriz
1 Dow
1 Graham

I'll see when the remaining will be on the shelves if I buy more.

Post by **Roy Hersh** » Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:20 am

Fred,

Is it safe to assume that this is case purchases and you are not talking about individual bottles?

Frederick Blais · Post by **Frederick Blais** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:13 am

I wish Roy, I wish

That's why I'm still buying lotto ticket

mwaters · Post by **mwaters** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 12:24 pm

I have ordered 5xGraham 375ml.

Based on the number of 2000s still on the shelves here in Ontario I don't see an issue with the 03s being available later though I wanted to grab these 375s knowing they won't last long. I was seriously thinking of Dow, Niepoort and Vesuvio as top picks along with Gould Campbell and Roriz.

Here's hoping theres lots of stock available at the end of the year.

Post by **Roy Hersh** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:59 am

I think that what you are failing to realize Matt, is that there is significantly less 2003 than 2000. Yields and therefore production was down plus there were limitations put on the '03s (read my forecast on the vintage for details). So to think that '03s are going to be around as much as 2000 is probably misconceived just based on the original quantites available. We'll see soon enough.

Steve Saxon · Post by **Steve Saxon** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 8:58 am

I have changed my 03's to the following.
2 Fonseca's
3 Quint Do Vesuvio's
3 Crofts