For The Love Of Port

Basically, 2014 all over again, but not quite as bad.

Glenn and others, please stop the speculation from afar. Here is the REAL truth:

Douro Harvest 2015 Update: Last week there was a lot of bad news and scared producers as the heavy rains forebode a similar turnout similar to 2014. Much ado about grape.

The good news is that there has been warm weather and a LOT of wind that has beautifully dried out the vineyards, replenished nutrients to the vines and made the grapes even better. Knock on wood, things are looking amazing and color in lagares are deeply extracted. A clear sky prevails and if things continue without further rain, this will be an extraordinary year!

Roy Hersh wrote:Glenn and others, please stop the speculation from afar. Here is the REAL truth:

Douro Harvest 2015 Update: Last week there was a lot of bad news and scared producers as the heavy rains forebode a similar turnout similar to 2014. Much ado about grape.

The good news is that there has been warm weather and a LOT of wind that has beautifully dried out the vineyards, replenished nutrients to the vines and made the grapes even better. Knock on wood, things are looking amazing and color in lagares are deeply extracted. A clear sky prevails and if things continue without further rain, this will be an extraordinary year!

Will start saving money!

Will start saving money!

Steady now - 2016 could still be better..

That said, there is so much momentum behind a 2015 declaration it seems likely that 2016 will not get a proper look in. If you read up the harvest notes on the '64 vintage, the ports from which are very hard to find, but also very elegant and robust; you realise that the decision to declare '63 had already been made, and the '64 vintage wasn't given a chance.

It follows that if 2016 is stupendous, but gets ignored, that might be where the smart money goes..

Roy Hersh wrote:Glenn and others, please stop the speculation from afar. Here is the REAL truth:

Douro Harvest 2015 Update: Last week there was a lot of bad news and scared producers as the heavy rains forebode a similar turnout similar to 2014. Much ado about grape.

The good news is that there has been warm weather and a LOT of wind that has beautifully dried out the vineyards, replenished nutrients to the vines and made the grapes even better. Knock on wood, things are looking amazing and color in lagares are deeply extracted. A clear sky prevails and if things continue without further rain, this will be an extraordinary year!

It's not incorrect speculation. There is no such thing when actual data isn't yet know, which it wasn't at the time. Now while it may have been beneficial for producers in certain parts of the Douro you cannot say that everyone benefited from the rain in regards to their best grapes they use for VP. If you've got perfectly maturated grapes, you don't pick for whatever reason, then have that much heavy rain, you wait a couple of days, you aren't going to get the great grapes that you had before. That is scientifically impossible. Something will be off/out of balance; alcohol level, sugar levels, tannin levels, skin development, acidity levels, etc. or you end up with grapes skins cracking open from the sudden swelling of extra water. It's far more complicated than you make it out to be.

So while SOME producers it may have helped or not affected their best VP quality grapes, you can't say that was the case for everyone. That would be physically impossible given the vast size of the region, many types of grapes grown, locations, exposures, etc.

Considering most of the larger more well known producers have Quinta's and/or suppliers in the eastern parts of the Cima Corga and Superior regions, most probably got enough VP quality grapes in prior to the rain. Where it won't be an issue or much of an issue and if the fervor continues they will declare (unless 2016 ends up being THAT good).

And besides, how many times have we all been told "This vintage was very good" or "All is great" only to learn later that wasn't the case. Producers, with a very small exception, generally don't come out and say "we're screwed", "this vintage is a washout", "this vintage isn't so great cause I gambled on the weather and lost", etc? Almost never, unless it's a year like 2002 where they have no choice. That isn't unique to the Douro, but to all wine regions around the world. So we all will still have to wait until the "Proof is in the pudding" as the saying goes, LOL.

I'll guess I'll have to see some tasting notes before I get all hot and bothered.

I tried explaining my girlfriend what was going on in this thread and that it is very important to know if the 2015 vintage will be worth buying up before the average Joe reads a RP review and start pushing the prices up. She just gave me that look that only women can which pretty accurately translates into: You are crazy!!

Good thing we don't have joint bank accounts

P.s. thanks for all the titbits and nuggets of insider information. I am very impressed with you guys network and insider connections.

Got an email response from Dirk Niepoort

I don't have the time or inclination to argue or explain at this point, after a night of treading grapes ... but it is pretty clear from talking to LOTS of winemakers / owners in 3 sub-regions at this point in time, seeing extraction levels, baume readings and tasting some of the sweetest grapes on the vines I've encountered in a long time, that this vintage is something very special. If it does not rain again during the next 10-14 days in which time the Port/Douro wine harvest will continue, the 2015 harvest will prove to be worthy of a general declaration. Sure this is preposterously premature. But unless 2016 is a "perfect year" I have zero doubt that we'll be seeing the proof in 2017, that 2015 was up there with some of the recent great years for Port and Douro wines. One renowned winemaker already stated "unofficially" that he will declare 2015 Vintage Port and I've never heard that before at the time of any harvest ... EVER, and I've been coming here each year for the past 11 harvests in a row. Is it a done deal? No. Can things still go south? Sure it is plausible; however, from where I stand, only another significant rain storm can turn the tide. Otherwise, this seems like a lock.

Two more producers today, said that their grapes have improved dramatically in the past week and they were glad they did not pick early. One said 2015 was going to be "an inevitable choice for a vintage declaration". The other would not comment, but did say their grapes were so thick skinned and concentrated due to the heat this past summer, that the rain had little to no effect whatsoever, although replenishing ground water was certainly a good thing given how hot it is again now.

We spent a lot of time in several vineyards today and the remaining grapes were looking great.

Tom Archer wrote:

Will start saving money!

Steady now - 2016 could still be better..

That said, there is so much momentum behind a 2015 declaration it seems likely that 2016 will not get a proper look in. If you read up the harvest notes on the '64 vintage, the ports from which are very hard to find, but also very elegant and robust; you realise that the decision to declare '63 had already been made, and the '64 vintage wasn't given a chance.

It follows that if 2016 is stupendous, but gets ignored, that might be where the smart money goes..

If 2015 is a very good year, i will buy a lot. If 2016 is an amazing year, i will buy a lot to. But we don't know anything about 2016, so what is the point talking about it? 2015 looks like it has a lot of potential, so that is why i am "saving"

If 2015 is a very good year, i will buy a lot. If 2016 is an amazing year, i will buy a lot to. But we don't know anything about 2016, so what is the point talking about it? 2015 looks like it has a lot of potential, so that is why i am "saving"

A very senior member of the trade, chatting in my presence recently at an informal social event, was tackled with the question: 'What if 2016 is even better?'

As he was 'off-duty' at the time, I won't quote him by name, but his reply was actually quite seismic, given his company's past approach to declarations.

He said: 'We have decided that we will no longer rule out back to back declarations'

Tom Archer wrote:

If 2015 is a very good year, i will buy a lot. If 2016 is an amazing year, i will buy a lot to. But we don't know anything about 2016, so what is the point talking about it? 2015 looks like it has a lot of potential, so that is why i am "saving"

A very senior member of the trade, chatting in my presence recently at an informal social event, was tackled with the question: 'What if 2016 is even better?'

As he was 'off-duty' at the time, I won't quote him by name, but his reply was actually quite seismic, given his company's past approach to declarations.

He said: 'We have decided that we will no longer rule out back to back declarations'

Good, there is no reason to carry on that silly tradition IF the vintage is THAT good. If it is, declare it, if not make your second label or lower stuff instead.

Tom Archer wrote:

If 2015 is a very good year, i will buy a lot. If 2016 is an amazing year, i will buy a lot to. But we don't know anything about 2016, so what is the point talking about it? 2015 looks like it has a lot of potential, so that is why i am "saving"

A very senior member of the trade, chatting in my presence recently at an informal social event, was tackled with the question: 'What if 2016 is even better?'

As he was 'off-duty' at the time, I won't quote him by name, but his reply was actually quite seismic, given his company's past approach to declarations.

He said: 'We have decided that we will no longer rule out back to back declarations'

That is a good thing. But 2016 can be shitty or can be good, time will tel.
But for now, i am hyped about 2015.

Andy Velebil wrote:

Roy Hersh wrote:Glenn and others, please stop the speculation from afar. Here is the REAL truth:

Douro Harvest 2015 Update: Last week there was a lot of bad news and scared producers as the heavy rains forebode a similar turnout similar to 2014. Much ado about grape.

It's not incorrect speculation. There is no such thing when actual data isn't yet know, which it wasn't at the time.

What Andy said.

What I said was true at the time. That's not incorrect speculation, it's drawing a conclusion based on available information.

Roy, what you've just said is only true for now... if it rains tomorrow everything will change yet again and your "REAL truth" will suddenly become the incorrect speculation.

Tom Archer wrote:

If 2015 is a very good year, i will buy a lot. If 2016 is an amazing year, i will buy a lot to. But we don't know anything about 2016, so what is the point talking about it? 2015 looks like it has a lot of potential, so that is why i am "saving"

A very senior member of the trade, chatting in my presence recently at an informal social event, was tackled with the question: 'What if 2016 is even better?'

As he was 'off-duty' at the time, I won't quote him by name, but his reply was actually quite seismic, given his company's past approach to declarations.

He said: 'We have decided that we will no longer rule out back to back declarations'

An excellent decision on his part! I applaud producing and selling excellent Port when it is available, regardless of whether or not the previous year was (or next year might be) also excellent.

Glenn,

Except for the FACT that just about every single person in the Douro has said 2015 is worthy of declaration. Most are either finished picking already, or are within a few days to a week of being finished. So while speculation from afar might turn out correct for a few producers, at best ... the vast majority have already seen the reality of the quality and quantity of the grapes that have already been turned into wine already. Along the way we have even tasted 2015 VP from tank and it was incredible. Peace out.

I only have a passing interest in the 2015 harvest as it will outlast me for quite some time. Winemakers somehow know when they have something special and have a better than average chance of a great wine, or declaration. We visited the Anderson Valley AVA last weekend and toured the Navarro Winery. Harvest was already finished and they were crushing Cabernet grapes they get from the warmer Ukiah area. I found out this was about two weeks early. I followed up with "How does this bode for the Late harvest wines?" Sadly for the second year in a row there will be no late harvest wines from Navarro. With this knowledge I purchased a few extra soon to be sold out bottles from previous years. If you like BA and TBA style wines these are California's best.

Roy Hersh wrote:Glenn,

Except for the FACT that just about every single person in the Douro has said 2015 is worthy of declaration.

Now, sure. But not when I posted.

I'll talk to you on email.

Glenn E. wrote:

Roy Hersh wrote:Glenn,

Except for the FACT that just about every single person in the Douro has said 2015 is worthy of declaration.

Now, sure. But not when I posted.

I'll talk to you on email.

Exactly and Thank you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fair enough. My apology to Glenn (and others) for my comment about "speculation from afar" and pressing the point afterwards. I did not properly read his timing of the comment, but nevertheless, that does not excuse my being impolite/rude at the time.

Sincerely,

Roy