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Did the Cy Young voters get it wrong?

Posted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:57 pm
by Roy Hersh
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 06671.html

I live here and the guy is really good ... but 13 wins?

What do you think?

Re: Did the Cy Yong voters get it wrong?

Posted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:54 pm
by Brian C.
It's pretty complicated. Safeco is a much better picher's park than anything in the AL East. The AL West isn't as tough to pitch against as the East, also. Hernandez usually didn't have as much on the line when he pitched, either. It's kind of like when A-Rod won an MVP by feasting on bullpens in games that were already decided long ago (yes, I know he also won one with a lot of clutch hitting the next time he won it.) That said, it's not his fault that Seattle can't hit. One could say that a guy like CC is going to get run support that nearly any other pitcher in baseball will never get. Price is not in the best market for baseball, but he does get more exposure on ESPN than Hernandez, because ESPN is basically a merger between YES and NESN when it comes to baseball, and he pitches more often against those two teams. (I mean in what other universe could Andy Pettitte have been a Cy Young candidate when he won 20 games with a 4.00 ERA or so?) So one could ask how well would Felix do in the AL East, and one could also ask how many games CC and Price would win with the Mariners. (And one could also ask how many runs Ichiro would score at the top of the Yankee lineup, and how many runs Jeter would score at the top of the Mariner lineup.)

Some stat lines:

Felix: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/748 ... qzuvyFCLcF
Price: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/817 ... qzuvyFCLcF
CC: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/660 ... qzuvyFCLcF

Felix has the best road stats. I'd think that the road is better for figuring out how much it's about the pitcher versus how much it's about the park. But I know that's not the whole story, and I'm sure someone might be able to glean something else from the collection of stats.

And we have the argument about how much numbers really matter. In fantasy baseball, they mean everything. In Moneyball, that's how personnel decisions get made. But are stats all that matter? Who would you rather have in a pressure situation? If you were a hitter, who would you least like to face?

What measures should be used when casting a vote for Cy Young or MVP? I could never vote for Howard over Pujols, for instance. Pujols never slumps, and he carries the lineup. Howard slumps, and the lineup carries him. Trade them straight up and see who does what.

Not sure if I got anywhere in this analysis...

Re: Did the Cy Yong voters get it wrong?

Posted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:23 pm
by Glenn E.
I think they got it right.

I don't really follow baseball, but I've been reading all of the "controversy" about King Felix and I think it's much ado about nothing. Wins is irrelevant for a pitcher because it's a team stat, not an individual stat. Hernandez had the lowest run support in baseball from what I've been reading, so of course he's going to lose more games than a pitcher like CC.

Seems like Hernandez deserved it to me, and I'm glad the voters are finally ditching wins as an indicator.