Recent UK auction trends

[Tom Archer]

The following brief observations may be of some interest:

'48 & '45 are kings of the castle, but some very inconsistant prices.

'55's - down noticeably from last year - the 50th birthday market clearly boosts prices.

'60's - not much sold recently - very little price variation between shippers

'63's - top wines riding high, others sagging slowly

'66's - prices have gone ballistic, probably on the strength of 40th birthdays - typically up 50% over the year

'70's - steadily rising prices across the board

'75's - the market has lost some of its venom towards this vintage, and the better players - notably Graham & Taylor - are commanding much better prices than a year ago.

'77's - prices solid, but not much movement

'80's - possible bargains here - there's not much enthusiasm for this vintage at present

'83's - prices solid, not much movement, very good value, especially from less well known shippers

'85's - 21st birthdays do not seem to be having much effect - static prices

'91's - not much sold recently, not much price movement

'92's - aside from Vesuvio, hardly any sold recently

'94's - some very good prices, especially from second division shippers

'97's - dramatic lack of interest. Most recent lots at Christies have gone unsold. One to stock up on

'00's - also suffering a notable lack of interest, with low prices and lots failing to sell

Most favoured big name shipper - Fonseca.

Currently riding very high with some silly prices realised

Least favoured big name shipper - Dow.

No rationale to this at all - last year, no-one wanted Warre - this year it's Dow's turn.

Top value at present: Dow '97 & '00

Tom

[Roy Hersh]

Tom,

OK, so Fred is the man when it comes to orchestrating the Virtual Tastings. How would you like to be the FTLOP Auction Analyst?

If the answer is yes, please let us/me know ...

a. Would you be willing to keep us in touch with the Port price changes on a quarterly basis?

b. Of course I see pricing in Decanter, (as I am sure many others do) so how would your analysis differ?

c. Are you only keeping watch for prices for London-based auction houses and if so ... which one's in particular? Do you have the information available to include USA based auction pricing on Port too?


All that aside, I'd like to thank you for your very thought provoking market analysis. I look foward to your response, either in this thread or by email.

[Derek T.]

Tom,

I take it the Firework industry is a bit quiet at this time of year :)

Interesting stuff, especially the unsold lots from 97 - were they unsold due to high reserve prices or just no bidders?

Derek

PS: Do you think the percieved good prices on 94, 97 & 00 point to them being (vastly) over-priced on release? If so, perhaps those anticipated 2005's should be left alone :?

[Tom Archer]

I'm spending far too much time poring over auction catalogues and results, and whilst this will probably continue, my other commitments, business-wise will begin to prevail as the year progresses.

Whilst I look ar auctions all over the UK, only the London ones actively publish results - if something special turns up elsewhere, I can normally get the result of that particular item by phoning up.

I've only looked at the US auction market superficially, but I get the impression that it is more driven by investors and collectors than the British one, which is mostly driven by dealers and drinkers.

The UK auction scene is complicated by varying duty and VAT status, and different levels of buyers premium. I am working on a spreadsheet to make my analysis more precise.

The possibility of turning that into a web accessible price guide is not off the agenda, but don't rush me!

Derek, the unsold lots are down to a lack of bidders, which of course suggests that the price should go lower.

The reserve price on lots is usually a bid or two below the low estimate, but recently it appears to be the low estimate itself -

- for example, at Christies last sale on Monday this week, Lot 26 was a case of Q. de la Rosa '97 on an estimate of £130 - £180.

Judging by merchants retail prices, £180 looks fair, but I don't particularly need any, so I pitched at what I thought would be the reserve - £120. However, the lot is recorded as unsold.

Similarly, Lot 41, a case of Croft '00 - estimate £170 - £220. Worth slightly more in the market than Rosa - £190 would be fair. Slightly higher on my wish list, but no urgency, so I pitched at £150. Again unsold.

Judging by these results, I am of the opinion that the rocketing release prices have indeed overshot, and there needs to be a correction.

For the expected 2004's - Roriz/Rosa/Vesuvio (-and the other 'chateau' quintas) - I would suggest that the acceptable en primeur price on release should be no more than £180/case if it gets credited with Parker points in the high nineties, going down to £120/£130 for a 90 point mean rating, and £100 max for anything sub 90.

However, I have a hunch that average prices will be in the order of £220 ($400), with an average Parker rating close to 90.

I would judge that as a no-go.

Tom

[Chris G]

Tom

Thanks for the update this was very interesting.Generally I have found that over the last year there seems to be more interest in port at auction and I am finding less of my bids being hit.

What I find interesting is the large amount of certain houses and vintages coming up at auction in London, the two that spring to mind are Vesuvio 95 and Croft 2000. I have to declare an interest here in that I have taken advantage of the soft prices on the Croft.

Christopher

[Tom Archer]

I've taken a lot of advantage of soft prices!

Tom

[Roy Hersh]

Anybody else notice that prices normally seem to be at their softest every year between March and May? I have watched this for years and it has always struck me as the time to buy. It is solely a coincidence, but it is also one of the prime times for shipping, due to advantageous weather/temperatures.



Tom,

If you build it, they will come. I will create a seperate Forum for your Auction Analysis, if/when you feel like you want to do this. There will be other perquisites too. No time pressure whatsoever! As you've noticed, I have NO issues in releasing control and letting the inmates run the asylum.

[David Spriggs]

Anybody else notice that prices normally seem to be at their softest every year between March and May?

This is true. I also notice that the amount available to purchase is also down. There are some new things that come to market at this time, but much of it appears to be recycled unsold lots. I'm no expert, but that's what it looks like to me. But you are correct that this is a good time to jump if something new comes up! What I notice is that around the end of August / early Sept. the inventory increases dramatically (stocking up for the holidays?). Lots of interesting things seem to come on the market at that time.

(How I wish I could buy some 1966s at what they were priced a couple of years ago!)

-Dave-

[Stuart Chatfield]

'97's - dramatic lack of interest. Most recent lots at Christies have gone unsold. One to stock up on
Tom

I follow them too, but with no real scientific analysis - more of a financial/discounting analysis.

I know I've said it before, but there are two definite things I've seen in my experience:

1. the best time to buy is at/just before the start of the drinking window. I wished I'd have kept the various advertisements I've had saying "buy en primeur now as prices will rise / you'll need to ensure future drinking" etc. as it has always turned out to be rubbish. Retailers beware - I am now keeping them and will bring them up for public viewing in 10 years time!

2. good vintages between two v. good ones tend to be the best value.

Both the above have caused me to stock up on 97s too - I think they are the best buy now.

Both 03s and 00s can be got at opening price now (00 maybe fractionally above) - my money has done much better on the stock market (even with recent falls)....and will ensure even better future suplies than if I had bought heavily on opening.

After 97 I'd say 80 is the best buy. And I hesitate to say it, but the 2000s have fallen to such an extent that it may even be worth buying them soon . (I may regret not sharing some of that Fonseca '00 I got wholesale for some of the London crowd!)