What I have learned while here in Portugal

[Roy Hersh]

Although the early reports last year at harvest and shortly thereafter were quite optimistic about the quality of the grapes, it seems that opinions are now less enthusiastic.

I have tasted my way through quite a few 2004 Vintage Ports and of course, Douro wines as well (cask samples) and the quality is worthy. However, there is no question that the overall quality does not stand up to that of the 2003s, and it is my belief that the trade wisely chose the former vintage over the latter.

That said, although nobody wants to go on the record at this point, the half dozen opinions I have heard are pretty unanimous about 2005. The 2005s more than likely WILL NOT BE DECLARED as a "classic" Vintage. It is my opinion that this has to do with the reality of the market conditions as much as anything and therefore some of what is being said of the 2005 Ports may be a bit of rhetoric. There is unquestionably, LOTS of 2003 VPs still in the marketplace and they have not sold through nearly as well as the trade would have liked. Whether that is due to price resistance or other dynamics, is anybody´s guess.

So from what I have heard we should look for SQVPs and second labels from 2005, although some of the smaller players who are reliant on declaring for cash flow purposes, may in fact declare 2005. It IS STILL TOO EARLY to truly assess the 2005s and I was rebuked in every case where I asked to barrel sample the 2005s, except in one house that would have allowed me to had the time not been running out on our visit.

More information to follow as I have one more key visitation this afternoon.

[Marco D.]

Hmmm... this is bad news. I was hoping 2005 would be declared, as I have a son born that year. Hopefully some SQVP will impress.

2005 Bordeaux is out of the question, given the ridiculous prices. Oh well, German Magnums would be cool. :)

[Tom Archer]

What I think was the first case of 2003 VP to be auctioned in the UK went under the hammer last Saturday.

The wine - Fonseca - realised £327 including BP - only two thirds of the release price after tax and duty are included. Had a large quantity been sold, I suspect the price would have been lower still.

Will the shippers cut their prices to move stocks? I wonder..

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

Tom,

I've been patiently waiting here in the States for '03 prices to drop. A lot, and I mean a lot, of retailers here have a rather large stock of the '03's still taking up space in their stores. Some have already offered some deals, one that was listed here on the forum from a store near my house. When I picked up my case, the owner said he had to put them on sale because they were not selling and he had to clear out the space for other in coming wines.

I think after the summer heat is gone and stores need the room for the new shipments of wines coming in, we will (at least in the states) see the prices of the '03 VP's drop.

Plus, given the fact that 2004 was a good year for SQVP's and now it look likes 2005 will be a great year for SQVP's I think we shall see some prices go down.

[Mike Kerr]

I look forward to some downward movement in the '03 prices as well, but I've found - at least in my area - that there isn't any backstock of '03's lying around. I have yet to see '03's other than Warre, Dow, Taylor and Fonseca in the main stores around here. If I venture into DC I can find Noval. But even then the prices are in the $80+ range per bottle for Dow and Warre, and minimum $100 for Taylor, Fonseca and Noval. Still no Niepoort, Grahams, Woodhouse, or Vesuvio.

You can find some SQVP's like Quinta do Vale Meao for around $50 a bottle, but I still think that's expensive. Haven't even seen Osborne or Offley '03's yet, which are the main brands you will find in quantity here. I did spy a Gould Campbell for $55.

It's depressing. The money I save by buying outside my area gets eaten up by shipping costs. I'd be happy to see more variety from '03 come into the area and see some prices drop, even if my area maintains the markup it has now.

Mike.

[Tom Archer]

Things need to get into perspective - I have just bought an original case of Warre 1970 - rated 5* by Broadbent - for just under the best price going for Warre 2003.

You can't write off 33 years of capital tie-up and storage costs - the market has to get back into balance, and that means new wine coming in at much lower prices.

Tom

[nicos neocleous]

Roy,

Thank you for the update. I bought a lot less 2003's than 2000's. Saw the price differential for older vintages and spent my budget there. We know that the general quality of VP now, especially among the big names, is great, but it is not an easy market out there.

Best,
Nicos

[David Spriggs]

Thanks for keeping us up-to-date. It will be interesting to see if you will be able to taste the 2005s in October

-Dave-

[Roy Hersh]

David,

I have arranged some very intriguing tastings for this fall. One of which will be a comparative tasting of two vintages of each of the 5 major Port grapes, declared w/ IVDP seals ... vinified seperately and bottled seperately. A couple of the EU Port experts on this board, said in a very early thread on this board that I was wrong, that no such Port existed. I plan to prove them wrong by having those who join us this fall, taste them for themselves. This is very different than the single grape VP "experiments" you tried last year with us. I will not reveal the producer prior to the visit. There are other excellent tastings planned as well. I can promise you will enjoy some 2004s too. I had my fill and will include them in a report at some point.


Will the shippers cut their prices to move stocks? I wonder..

Tom, it is far more likely that the shippers will just hold onto their 2003 stocks and not refill the pipeline. Having questioned a few prominent shippers about their "sell through" on 2003s, most were not disappointed although they obviously feel that some of their wines could have sold better. Do not expect to see the "roll back" of Port pricing ex-cellars, anytime soon. What is already in retail shops may be a different story. I do not think that Andy will get his wish that prices will decrease after the hot summer months. The reason is that the autumn, leading up to the Christmas holiday season is usually the time of year in which the most Port is sold.


Nicos,

I mentioned the 2000s to two producers in terms of pricing and their long term strategies for releasing them as well as their prognostication about pricing. The impression I was left with, is that in the future the prices that YOU paid for 2000 VPs will seem very reasonable in a decade or so as stocks moved exceptionally well, it was a smaller than usual declaration to being with (in terms of overall production/yields) and many of the top shippers/producers do not have a lot of 2000 in their cellars. These will ultimately become trophies in the future as will 2000 Bordeaux. Of course, it may take a longer time for that to occur with the VPs. 8)

[Andy Velebil]

I've now spoken to several shops here in the L.A. area that have lowered their port prices. Some on the 03's and some on other vintages (mainly 1997's) that have not sold. They have all said that slower port sales and the need to clear inventory as the reason for the reduction in price. Maybe it's just the market here in the L.A. area, I don't know but i like the lower prices.

[David Spriggs]

David,

I have arranged some very intriguing tastings for this fall.

Sounds great! I hope some here on this board will be coming along.

-Dave-