The Rise & Fall of the Euro

[Marco D.]

A buddy of mine who is an investment planner, when I mentioned the rate, told me there would be a bounce before we hit parity and sure enough there's the bounce...the day after he told me that FWIW.

Where it leads now is anyone's guess but the published expert consensus seems to be that not only is parity coming but we might see it as low as .85 in the next few years - the long term data looks bad for the euro, good for the $ (grossly oversimplified and paraphrased).

I'll be in Portugal in August. Hopefully the bounce will be over by then.

[Roy Hersh]

For the past week, the Euro has hovered @ 1.11 - 1.125. The announcement on Greece on Tuesday should cause the Euro to move again. Which way, I have no idea. The thought that parity is in the cards has recently faded, this might be the last hope for that. But then again it could head up quickly depending on the pressure applied by Merkel/EU/Germany. It should be very interesting.

[Roy Hersh]

1.14090

Parity is a dream.

[Bradley Bogdan]

Could be a realistic dream if the recent conservative majority in the UK is successful in helping the country in leaving the EU trade agreement. A bit different than Greece et al's direct threat to the currency, but from what I've read it would have a negative effect on the currency just from the reduced trade from the currency member countries.


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[Roy Hersh]

Geez, dropped back down quite a ways: 1.08890

[Eric Menchen]

Woohoo!

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[Roy Hersh]

Amen brother, love when that happens. Now if it will hold under 1.10 for the next few weeks ... that would be very helpful while back in PT.

[Roy Hersh]

Nope, the see-saw swung back up to 1.11940 right now.

[Eric Menchen]

Greece is the word.

[Matt K]

I see what you did there.

[Roy Hersh]

LOL, back down a drop, but still. I'd love to see it head down this coming week.

[Roy Hersh]

1.13474 at the moment.

[Matt K]

Dollar Rises Against Euro as Clearer Pictures of Greece, Fed Policy Emerge
http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-rise ... 1435081579

MI-CK237_MONET_16U_20150623181806.jpg (84.69 KiB) Viewed 2045 times

[Roy Hersh]

With Greece's "NO" vote, things are bound to get very interesting in a hurry: 1.10483 at the moment. If we see a negotiated deal happen quickly, (I am skeptical that is possible) then likely we could see the Euro strengthen, but I believe the opposite will happen and negotiations will be drawn out as Greece will not accept, (or so they say) any further austerity measures. Interesting times.

[Roy Hersh]

A nice underlying current:

Oil markets took a big hit. The benchmark U.S. contract tumbled $2.72 to $54.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Given the profiteering in this sector in recent years, I don't mind a bit of smug schadenfreude.

[Bradley Bogdan]

A nice underlying current:

Oil markets took a big hit. The benchmark U.S. contract tumbled $2.72 to $54.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Given the profiteering in this sector in recent years, I don't mind a bit of smug schadenfreude.

+1

As for Greece, they could put this all on HBO and it'd be a thriller. I don't really see how they fix their debt issues without leaving the Euro. Seeing as currency devaluation is the biggest tool to fixing themselves, and that's not an option, why stay? The downside is that to get to this point, Syriza was elected, and they don't seem to be sporting the autocratic technical know how to not waste the (very challenging but very big) opportunity to blow it all up and reintroduce the drachma. That kind of step means really focusing on export growth, good capital controls, strong and reliable central organizations to enforce monitory rule/taxes, and and setting of strong, but sensible and sustainable levels of public assistance. I suspect they're better than they seem, but I still doubt they're the bunch that is truly up to the task.


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[Eric Menchen]

Of course you can find a counter-argument, but longer term I was reading today that even after Greece is resolved one way or another, the prediction is still for the dollar to gain against the euro.

[Andy Velebil]

1.0947

[Roy Hersh]

1.08246

[Roy Hersh]

By the way, it was Tsipras who was elected in Greece and although I believe there will be early elections later this fall, (again) clearly, leaving the Euro was not what the new PM chose, in spite of his countryment's vote to not play along with the EU, which was how Tispras wound up getting elected in the first place.