For The Love Of Port

Over the past 2-3 years, the price escalation of Madeira, has reached never-before-seen levels. It reminds me of what happened to Bordeaux starting with the 2000 vintage. Madeira prices are skyrocketing on a trajectory that may make it unaffordable for the average enthusiast ... or ... all but the uber-wealthy collectors.

Obviously there is a limited supply and scarcity factor of old Madeira bottlings. I get that, but are there that many new buyers nowadays that have driven prices to the current insane levels we see at auction?

My comparison to Bordeaux is merely hyperbolic, yet in a way, it is not too far off the mark. Will we see the bubble burst, or will prices keep on keeping on?



Your thoughts?

Higher demand + Less product = Increased price
Economics 101

Thanks for posting this Roy, I was starting to think I was the only one here becoming price sensitive... I've personally cut back on my consumption and have re-focused my efforts on locating QPR's that fit my lifestyle. Shifting back to my old flame is probably prudent too... some Oloroso's, Palo cortado's, can still be had at good prices and have some of the qualities I love in madeira.

Roy Hersh wrote:My comparison to Bordeaux is merely hyperbolic, yet in a way, it is not too far off the mark. Will we see the bubble burst, or will prices keep on keeping on?

Your thoughts?

Actually that is not off the mark at all; quite on point. I was just talking about this on another forum (two days ago) and here's my post:

"In 2012, the last time I bought bottles of 1968 D'Oliveiras is was $138, now it is $169. Prices are going to continue an upward trend as the stocks dwindle down."

Moses Botbol wrote:"In 2012, the last time I bought bottles of 1968 D'Oliveiras is was $138, now it is $169. Prices are going to continue an upward trend as the stocks dwindle down."

I remember that price, because several bottles came up at auction, and I passed because you could get it at retail for $138-139. I think that was at RWC. Their price today is $180.

When I first started buying and suggesting the 1968 Bual by D'Oliveiras ... circa 2000-2002 it was $69 per bottle. I feel your pain. I think I pushed it too hard on the Squires/Parker forum and here on early and often.

Sources are going to be more and more reliant on auction and that's where the "stupid money" ... meaning, those looking for ancient dates that are otherwise meaningless to them, as well as those going after Madeira for all the wrong reasons ... and don't necessarily even drink or love it.

In the USA, the companies selling Madeira are not even buying nearly as much of the oldies as they once did. They are now focused on Madeira that sells through quickly. What we'd call QPR bottles in the $45-250 range. Yeah, kind of nuts when a $175 bottle is considered solid QPR.

I think for those new to Madeira, what will remain affordable are the Colheitas, 10, 15, 20 year old bottlings, special releases like the RWC Historic Series etc. That is going to be the "future" of Madeira. Mark my words, that the 19th century gems that some of us have been spoiled drinking over the past 10-20 years will be at prices that will seem out of the stratosphere by the end of this decade. The new Madeira reality is going to set in very very soon. I've discussed this with both importers and producers alike and all pretty much agree with this. There will always be some old bottles around, especially when visiting the island ... but otherwise, my suggestion is to do the bulk of your "older bottle" buying in the next 2-3 years. Thereafter, who knows what prices may be like. It wouldn't surprise me to see the aforementioned 1968 Dolly Bual @ over $200 before long.

That literally was my house Vintage Madeira for many years and I was shocked when it went from $69 to $79 and then "all the way to" $99 per bottle. Bartholomew Broadbent predicted this would happen, back around 1999, IIRC. In fact, he sent an email and said that his company would get ahead of the curve and raise their prices (substantially!) on all older bottlings that were produced with the Broadbent label by Justino's, of course. I thought it would not only slow down his sales of older bottles, but make things unaffordable for his loyal customers. Fortunately, the Broadbent 10 year old Malmsey ... which I love sipping along with cigars, (when I don't want to open a 1988 D'Oliveiras Terrantez) is still quite affordable.

I agree completely.
Remember at Justino's last year. They said they were raising prices on all their older wines because they want to preserve their stock. Otherwise people are buying them up.
I think there is increased visibility on Madeira and so greater demand worldwide. And the production is just so tiny! One big Bordeaux chateaux produces more than the entire Island, and that includes table wines (which is increasing in production). Terrantez is what, 1200 liters/year.
Increased numbers of aficionados is a mixed blessing. I'm stocking up while I can and am very glad I got some old wine several years ago.

When the market gets flooded with fakes, that's when you know it has arrived, I think.

Roy:

I can beat that. My first three bottles of 1968 D'Oliveiras Bual were $60 in the early 90's.

Meanwhile, in an e-mail I received yesterday from K&L:

Due to the rebounding US dollar, and some much-needed pricing corrections from our partners over in Bordeaux, we are seeing some softening prices on the world's greatest wines.

" ... world's greatest wines.


You gotta love their humility.

Back in June of 2014, I posted a comment on the escalating cost of Madeira:

http://fortheloveofport.com/ftlopforum/ ... =2&t=18396

My observation there was that the younger generation had "discovered" both Port as well as ancient Madeira. Just like the cigar craze back in the 80s forward where a $2 or $3 hand rolled, 49 gauge aged multi-leafed cigar escalated to over $10 in just a few years, old Madeiras went from $75 to $750 in about the same time frame. Back in the 80s, generations "X" discovered hand-made cigars were absolutely cool and the tobacco at the time was extraordinary. While tobacco can be grown and re-grown and aged, the old Madeiras have a finite end and can't be reproduced. There can't be that many casks from the early 1800s left on the planet for sale, right? So, as they are tapped and sold by the bottle they are going to rise in price to a level that will exceed even the finest Bordeaux, sauterne, or even Porto.

Then, I began reading articles in my local Sunday paper written by those travel and food people who love to talk up new finds. One article was all about old Madeira's and was so amazing complimentary to them that I was compelled to write her and thank her for "poisoning the water" for any future purchases. I was buying old wines from Rare Wine Company at 200-400 prices and within a year they were over $600. She replied that it was inevitable and I had to agree that the word would have gotten out eventually. I should just be glad I have "mine", I guess.

I'm thrilled to have the small collection I have and share it sparingly with only special friends to might appreciate drinking liquid history. Our pleasure is not something that the youngsters today will be able to enjoy, imho, as these bottle will be consumed and that'll be that. The old wines will be only read about and a lot of old tales told "I remember when I was a young man and this ancient fella brought out a bottle of 1834 Sercial...........

Rome

Er, it was the early to mid-1990s where cigars really took off, not the 1980's, at least in the USA. The boom time was 1994-1999 in my opinion.