I think with the success of Christies December Madeira auction, we'll see more Madeira come to auction. The question is whether or not the prices stay as firm.
The Christie's online which just started is loaded with 20th C. Madeira and the NY auction starting in ~2 weeks has a fair amount of 18/19th C. Madeira.
I'm not sure if that was going to happen anyway or if it is related the to the success of the Christie's December auction.
Have to admit, but Madeira is still something of a niche market. If too many lots come up in a limited time, I'm not sure the market can absorb it all at premium prices. Now, the rare and superlative will always be high priced, but the upper middle and middle tier wines could possibly soften.
I didn't 'win' a thing - competition was pretty heavy and was willing to go far deeper than I was. Sorry I couldn't make this easier to read...I really wish this site had image hosting.
A negative % in the % off retail data means an item went OVER retail - calculated against the result inclusive of the 2.5% premium.
My 'retail' prices are what I feel are market correct based upon data from WSpro, goodle, CT-Wine Marker Journal.
This data is limited to only the lots I was bidding on or following. IMO the only lot that represented a good value vs market was lot 733 and I didn't want to drop $3K for 6 x Bual Justino Henriques 1890
Matt,
Would love to hear from you what your opinion is on these results. Seems like you follow the market very closely. Your enthusiasm for Madeira is contagious. Keep up the good work!
I got shut out of a dozen bids here and also at Christies regular auction (not the online one.) Prices were firm but not crazy. The bid estimates were in line from early last year and don't factor in the most recent auction results. I thought them a bit low. I would have loved to participate in person since the majority of my outbids were only by one. More Madeira is coming to auction after December's Christies Madeira offerings. Maybe Madeira is becoming cool!
Justin, thank you. I'm not good at half measures, I'm an all-in or nothin' kinda guy. :)
Regarding the long term Madeira market I'm hardly an expert (yet!) because I'm still relatively new to this, especially buying Madeira at auction on this scale - someone like Eric has a better sense of the long term market but looking at price history on WineSearcher show a pretty consistent pattern of price increase for Madeira which has seen an especially sharp increase for the past 3-4 years. 1960's bottles that were $125 3 years ago are now $200. 190X bottles that were $500 are now $800+.
That said, part of what I do professionally requires an in depth understanding of marketplace and pricing so I have dorked out pretty hard on the data from a number of major recent auctions and in an email to Gary yesterday I wrote the following, edited for clarity:
The take away I have so far:
• The big lot auctions are the opportunity for a good price: not the 1-4 bottle lots as prices seem to generally much closer to retail for those (Spectrum, Christies, Winebid, K&L) and 1-2 bottles lots are especially bad. The Christie's March online results on the bigger lots where the average w/premium was ~50% of retail; in this auction the average for the 13 lots (a much smaller data set)was 18% OVER retail for the lots that I tracked.
• The 20th c product vs 19th c. product certainly played a big role as well if we factor in the Christie’s Dec 2014 auction (and the one closing tomorrow) – so the 19th c. market is ‘hot’ and the 20th. c. is much more reasonable.
• Zachy’s estimates generally make sense relative (as Eric points out above). Christie’s estimates are nonsense - maybe if you ADD Christies high/low you'll see a more realistic number.
• Summary: there’s good auction QPR on large lots of 20th c. product but if you want 19th c. product it's almost always small lots and plan to pay close to retail and just be ‘glad’ you can find the products being offered.
A perfect example: This Zachy's auction lot 731 was 4 bottles of Madeira Grand Cama de Lobos Blandys Solera 1864. The lot went for $1800 - which is $2205 after reserve or 551.25/bottle. I bought a bottle from BWG for myself as a 'consolation prize'...for $550 bottle.
My data set isn't huge but the data seems pretty consistent so far: small lots sell closer to retail, the older the product the closer to prices will be retail.
I think your analysis is pretty accurate. I was successful on none of the Zachy's lots. In the Christie's live auction, I got 2 lots-- 6 bottles of 1894 H&H Founder's Reserve Solera and 12 bottles of 1912 D'Oliveiras Verdelho Reserva (bottled 1911).
In the Christie's Online auction, I was successful on 7 lots:
Lot 374- Barbeito, Funchal Bual Reserva Velha 1960 (Bottled in 2010) (12)
Lot 378- Barbeito, Funchal Malvasia Reserva Velha 1954 (Bottled in 2010) (10)
Lot 379- Barbeito, Funchal Malvasia Reserva Velha 1954 (Bottled in 2011) (9)
Lot 380- Cossart Gordon, Sercial 1960 (6)
Lot 383- Cossart Gordon, Madeira Sercial 1954 In original wooden case (12)
Lot 405- Blandy's, Sercial 1910 In original wooden case (6)
For the most part, the prices were very low, bucking the general trend, and creating an amazing buying opportunity.
I think it was a mistake on Christie's part to dump so many lots of Madeira in the same sale. I'm not complaining, but this has happened historically when large numbers of bottled Madeira are sold at one auction.
I think your analysis is pretty accurate. I was successful on none of the Zachy's lots. In the Christie's live auction, I got 2 lots-- 6 bottles of 1894 H&H Founder's Reserve Solera and 12 bottles of 1912 D'Oliveiras Verdelho Reserva (bottled 1911).
In the Christie's Online auction, I was successful on 7 lots:
Jim, I think that you found a true rarity in the 1912 D'Oliveiras Verdelho Reserva (bottled 1911)!
![[friends.gif]](./images/smilies/friends.gif "Friends"){kind=small}
![[foilhat.gif]](./images/smilies/foilhat.gif "DuckNcover"){kind=small}
![[cheers.gif]](./images/smilies/cheers.gif "Toast"){kind=small}