You know, while it is easy to say that they are happy to produce back to back vintages ... they have not gone ahead and ever shown us that they will do that ... yet. So until the day where that does happen, I don't believe the boasts or conjecture. When we someday see this put into practice, your point will be far more valid. And we are talking about the two big guns here, obviously not the SQVP. So, I am not ignoring the industry, Andy; I am solely focused on facts of what has already taken place ... or not; and won't be buying into what someone hears. Like what the SYM rep said to Mike K. above, speculation and conjecture are fraught with mistakes.
While I certainly was one of the very first to put in writing, the possibility of the demise of the general declaration due to SQVP production enabling any year to be declared, the unofficial tradition of declaring 3x per decade, has in fact, remained intact. Whether anyone really cares anymore, we can argue that point forever.
As for the image: we disagree there too, which makes for fun reading for the rest of this community, viewing our discussion. While there may be some lingering old school thoughts about Port and the old image ... there is a TON of new energy, young people buying Port, Port clubs springing up, woman now far more into Port than ever before, loads of young people buying in for the very first time, Port in cocktails, modernized packaging and especially marketing. Additionally, education is FAR better than a decade ago, but obviously more can always help.
Also your comment about VP taking 30 years to mature ... is somewhat anachronistic. Yes, the people on the the major forums about Port, often prefer the well-aged secondary and tertiary notes of a VP. However, in the past, the way the Vintage Ports were produced, did not intend for them to be drinkable in their youth. Port took a good decades to be approachable. That hasn't been the case and changed starting with 1997, with intent. And ever since, Port houses have been making subtle changes, e.g. tannin management and improved aguardente, so that Port doesn't "have to" be cellared for 20 years, no less 30 years in order to be drinkable.
But I think that the needle on the Port image thing has moved quite a bit in the past decade. Just look at the young tourists who now flock to Porto and the Douro. Things have progressed and continue to improve ... in my view ... significantly. Can they still improve from here? Definitely. But this is not 2000 anymore, where that view was spot on.
Your comment about less production seems off to me. There has been no general declaration since 2011. So let's look at that one, because otherwise, we are going back a decade to 2007. Yes, 3 general declarations in the past dozen years, (taking us back to 2005, when 2003 was declared, just to be clear). So in 2011 ... you had the biggest decrease in beneficio ... maybe EVER, if not in a generation or more. PLUS the yields were ridiculously low. Both factored into a tiny release by most of the shippers/producers.
If you are talking about reductions in production prior to the 2011 ... please bring on the proof, to back up your theory.
As for why Tawny (and especially Colheita) has taken off in recent years ... I believe that has a lot more to do with younger people liking that profile a lot. In fact, when I bring groups to Portugal, I am surprised that year in and year out, I am seeing more and more of our guests, beginners, intermediates and serious geeks ... with a preference to wood-aged Ports nowadays. The Vintage Port is still loved by all guests, but preferences are definitely changing. Like the British who were weaned on VP, the younger generations of Port drinkers are exposed to the wood-aged Ports every bit as much as bottle-aged Ports and the pricing likely enters into this too.
Respectfully,
Roy