should I pull the trigger?

[David Co]

Was in a random wine shop in Harlem of all places and stumbled across dow 2011 vp. Was priced at 150 per bottle. I believe I paid 75 or so per bottle at release and about 95 per bottle in weeks leading up to it getting woty. as per Ws pro average price is at 225.
I can grab bottles for at most 150 if not less (no tax and 10% off the 150 if I grab them all from the shop). Just not sure how I feel paying around 100% more than I previosuly did for the same wine.
It is my sons birth year and I can only envision this way ascending in prices as it approaches its drinking winow in the next 7-10 years.

Any thoughts or advice?

[Moses Botbol]

I would not buy them at that price, but that's me. For $150 I'd buy 1970 vintages instead.

[Andy Velebil]

Considering you probably won't see this VP for any less of a price than that anytime in the near future, or ever given it's score, and since they are your son's birthyear Port (I assume to be given as a gift when he's of age) I would grab some. It is a wonderful VP!

[Tom Archer]

Although 2011 was very well reviewed and prices have held up well since release, there is no doubt that the vintage will be at least to some extent eclipsed by the likely 2016 declaration, which will doubtless be hailed by a handful of journalists as being the greatest vintage of all time - ever - etc..

This little ritual has been going on since the year dot, incidentally - even 1975 got hailed as a fabulous vintage at release.

What happens then is that people get a bit bored with vintages that are neither the latest kid on the block nor old enough to drink, so prices stagnate, and generally start to kick off again after about twenty years. Thus '94 prices are ratcheting up now, whilst '97 is still pretty much at the same level as 2011 at release - so that's the one to be buying now, with half an eye out for the 00's when the prices look good..

[Glenn E.]

What Andy and Tom both say is probably correct for this particular wine.

Wine Spectator gave it 99 points and named it their Wine of the Year for 2014. That kind of spotlight means that this specific Port probably won't regress in value after the next general declaration, which as Tom says is likely to be 2016. Others from the vintage might, though, so unless you really want to invest heavily in the 2011 Dow your money might be better served by waiting a couple of years and then picking up other brands.

Of course, having a bottle or two of 2011 Dow to go along with the "cheaper" ones is also a good plan... In that case, as Andy said I doubt you'll find this much cheaper - if at all - in the future so $150 seems reasonable. It sometimes sells for even higher than that online right now ($180-$210 range).

[Eric Menchen]

I would buy a few at that price, to compare to the other 2011s that I paid a lot less for.

[John Trombley]

This is what is called a cost averaging problem...would you rather have, say, four bottles for $115 each ($460) or six bottles for $127 each ($760). Now that makes it easier, doesn't it, but do your own calculation to see how it works.

By the way, I was looking for some of this wine yesterday, and would be happy to get and help you buy a little of what 's on the shelf, perhaps, if it'd help the deal, if you are who I think you are. PM me if it's of interest.

[Mahmoud Ali]

Well, unless you are heavily invested in stocking up on 2011 ports I would not advise it. Here in Edmonton, Canada where port prices are higher than in the US a local fine wine store has the 1994 Dow's for the equivalent of US$125 and I know which one I'd rather have.

Mahmoud.