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Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:56 pm
by Shawn Denkler
I first started buying from Christie's and Sotheby's in the early 1980's. Every auction was full of old wine of all types. In England I was at a pub and 1931 Quinta do Noval was available for £70 (it rocked my world). One English merchant had a huge quantity of 1931 Noval available - did I want 25 cases - or more?

Decades later the best wines were available only from the "Finest And Rarest" auctions but older wine was on the market. Slowly but surely very little old wine is offered for sale any more. Old Bordeaux and Burgundy costs a large fortune but very little is on the market. For Bordeaux the highlight of the auctions seems to be 1982's with very little older wine available.

Old Madeira now is very rare and expensive. Some is available at auctions but I feel the cellars of the world are being drained very quickly to take advantage of the high prices they are now fetching. In a few years I think very little will be available at any price.

For several years the "Finest And Rarest" auctions have had almost no older port and current lists from English merchants have very few older ones available as well. Prices for pre 1963 ports have increased slowly over the years but I think they are undervalued considering how little is available. Almost all the older collectors that amassed large cellars because the wines were cheap have sadly passed away and their cellars have been sold. I think very little pre 1963 port is truly available and am curious what others think.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:02 am
by Al B.
I share the impression you've described above, but do wonder whether that is because my time frame has not reset.

I look back longingly at the days when Noval '31 was easy to find and easy to buy — even if it was relatively expensive at the time.

But in the 1980s that was when these wines were only 50 years old. It's still relatively easy to find Port that is 50 years old, say from 1967 or 1970. It's quite difficult (but not impossible) today to find Port from the 1920s or 1930s, but in age terms that would have been like looking for and finding Port from the 1890s and 1900s when buying in the 1980s.

Port from the 1920s and 1930s must surely be getting more scarce. People like us keep opening and drinking the bottles we find and there can't have been that many available in the 1980s anyway. Maybe one day I'll trawl through the "what have you opened" thread and create a table of what we've opened and drunk between us all.

The period that really worries me is when the 1985 vintage reaches the age of 50. From what I remember, that was the last of the big volume vintages. Will Vintage Port vanish from the consumer's mind at that point because there just won't be any mature stocks for people to buy?

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:27 am
by Moses Botbol
Al B. wrote: The period that really worries me is when the 1985 vintage reaches the age of 50. From what I remember, that was the last of the big volume vintages. Will Vintage Port vanish from the consumer's mind at that point because there just won't be any mature stocks for people to buy?
There are only 5-6 different ports of that vintage that are really worth chasing IMO. I don't worry about port disappearing from the consumer's mind. I worry more about the emergence of the Chinese market pricing most consumers out of older vintages. It's bound to happen at some point. Vintage, sweet, red, exclusive... All the hallmarks are there.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:17 pm
by Eric Menchen
Moses Botbol wrote:I don't worry about port disappearing from the consumer's mind. I worry more about the emergence of the Chinese market pricing most consumers out of older vintages. It's bound to happen at some point. Vintage, sweet, red, exclusive... All the hallmarks are there.
I think the Chinese latching on is a bigger concern for consumers going forward. But personally, I don't worry about that too much for Port. I've been stocking up VP for retirement and am now at the point where I'm reducing my purchases. I bought a lot of 2011, and a few odds and ends after that. I'm trying to decide how much 2016 to buy, but it will likely be less than 2011. Now that I think about it, colheita might be a problem.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:28 pm
by Tom Archer
A facet of the auction market that I've noticed is that whereas ten years ago, ten to fifteen year old VP appeared with great regularity, the same cannot be said today.

We have seen moderate quantities of 2003 and 2000 this year - but far more 1994 and 1997. A little 2011 has appeared, unsurprisingly, given the way the investment brigade piled into that one, but hardly any 2007 has been sold.

A decade ago we also saw Vesuvio appear in virtually every sale, often in multi case lots, but this has gradually dwindled. The quantities offered this year have been very modest, with very little from post 2000 vintages.

- And for about the tenth year in a row, the most frequently seen VP at auction has been Warre '77..

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:18 am
by Al B.
2011 is an interesting vintage. Limited in quantity and great quality so it should be a good investment. I was surprised to see that the average auction price for 2011 means I would probably make a little money if I had to sell my 2011 bottles today.

And have you seen the retail price of Graham Stone Terraces 2011 currently showing on free Wine-Searcher? Glenn - time to sell some of your stocks and buy a new car...

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:29 am
by Eric Menchen
Al B. wrote:And have you seen the retail price of Graham Stone Terraces 2011 currently showing on free Wine-Searcher? Glenn - time to sell some of your stocks and buy a new car...
I've subscribed to wine-searcher again. The "pro" version gives the same answer. It has become quite rare at the moment.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:49 pm
by Glenn E.
Al B. wrote:2011 is an interesting vintage. Limited in quantity and great quality so it should be a good investment. I was surprised to see that the average auction price for 2011 means I would probably make a little money if I had to sell my 2011 bottles today.

And have you seen the retail price of Graham Stone Terraces 2011 currently showing on free Wine-Searcher? Glenn - time to sell some of your stocks and buy a new car...
I'm such a great guy that I'll give you all $30 off!

[help.gif]

Something tells me that's just an artifact of a sudden lack of supply. A price like that looks like a "trophy" price, which is a bottle that they never intend to sell, they just want to be able to have it in store (and listed on the internet) to attract attention.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:51 pm
by Eric Menchen
My plan for the 2011 Stone Terraces is to attend a 2011 horizontal tasting with Glenn in 33 years. As we'll be trying to source as many different labels as possible, I'll bring my Morgadio da Calçada while Glenn brings the Stone Terraces.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:51 pm
by Andy Velebil
Eric Menchen wrote:My plan for the 2011 Stone Terraces is to attend a 2011 horizontal tasting with Glenn in 33 years. As we'll be trying to source as many different labels as possible, I'll bring my Morgadio da Calçada while Glenn brings the Stone Terraces.
My plan is to distract Glenn with a Tawny then drink all his Stone Terrace LOL.

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:42 pm
by Glenn E.
Andy Velebil wrote:
Eric Menchen wrote:My plan for the 2011 Stone Terraces is to attend a 2011 horizontal tasting with Glenn in 33 years. As we'll be trying to source as many different labels as possible, I'll bring my Morgadio da Calçada while Glenn brings the Stone Terraces.
My plan is to distract Glenn with a Tawny then drink all his Stone Terrace LOL.
Even for a professional Port consumer such as yourself, that would require a LOT of Tawny! :-)

Re: Older Ports Getting Very Rare

Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:03 am
by Eric Ifune
We're talking gallons here! 8--)