COVID-19 and travel

[Tom Archer]

This damn Covid will spoil me from returning to Porto for a 4th straight year.

Whatever pearls of wisdom come out of the medical profession, I have a strong suspicion that a combination of economic necessity and public boredom will see normality return within a month or so.

I'm not writing off Sao Joao just yet..

[Andy Velebil]

This damn Covid will spoil me from returning to Porto for a 4th straight year.

Whatever pearls of wisdom come out of the medical profession, I have a strong suspicion that a combination of economic necessity and public boredom will see normality return within a month or so.

I'm not writing off Sao Joao just yet..

While S. Joao may continue in some form, the tourism industry will suffer for a long time. One can pretty much guarantee countries will implement travel restrictions of some type (probably health checks or something similar), people aren't going to plan to travel as far for fear of the virus' return or because of lack of job/money, and that's not taking into account how many travel related businesses may not survive (small hotels, Airbnb's, smaller airlines, etc). So as not to hijack the thread to much, I won't get into what this may do to smaller farmers in the Douro.

Now is the time for all of us to help the producers survive, especially the smaller ones who don't have a lot of resources to fall back on. If able, perhaps buy a little more than usual. Collectively, if everyone does a little bit it will add up. And a big thanks to those that already have!

[Glenn E.]

This damn Covid will spoil me from returning to Porto for a 4th straight year.

Whatever pearls of wisdom come out of the medical profession, I have a strong suspicion that a combination of economic necessity and public boredom will see normality return within a month or so.

I'm not writing off Sao Joao just yet..

Yeah, Sao Joao is right on the edge of my predicted "return to some semblance of normality" date. Given its significance, though, I suspect it will require a government ban to prevent, and I hope that the government of Portugal (or Porto) is giving it significant consideration. Something as large as Sao Joao could trigger a massive resurgence of COVID-19. We are not going to have herd immunity by that time frame.

I would personally not hold an event that large at that time, but I think most things will be on their way back to normal around then. I think concerts, sports events, and large festivals (anything over 250 people) should be avoided well into the fall. And frankly anything over 50 people will likely remain risky into the fall as well. But if you want to have a dinner party with friends, or go back to work... that should be fine starting in July based on current estimations of the "curve".

I would not personally attend Sao Joao this year whether they hold it or not. That would just be too risky for me.

[Eric Menchen]

How long things will last is highly variable; and it is interesting how just small differences in contact change things significantly. In the context of where I live (Colorado), I heard that if we can reduce interactions by 80%, things are done in May. Only a 60% reduction and we're still dealing with Covid-19 in August.

[Tom Archer]

How long things will last is highly variable; and it is interesting how just small differences in contact change things significantly. In the context of where I live (Colorado), I heard that if we can reduce interactions by 80%, things are done in May. Only a 60% reduction and we're still dealing with Covid-19 in August.

There are all manner of takes on this. I've been trying to make sense of how it is that high profile people seem so much more susceptible to it. If there was just one bug out there, it makes no statistical sense. Sure, high profile people meet more people than most who in turn meet other people more often than the average bloke, but that alone doesn't come remotely close enough to explaining things.

What does make some statistical sense is there being perhaps three active variants of it - catch one of them and you probably don't notice anything, catch two together and you get a Prince Charles infection, catch all three at once and you get a Boris Johnson..

When they finally roll out a reliable antibody test to see how many people have already had some form of it, I won't be surprised if it's a sizeable percentage of the population - at which point people might relax..

[Glenn E.]

There are all manner of takes on this. I've been trying to make sense of how it is that high profile people seem so much more susceptible to it.

Perhaps I am too cynical, but my suspicion is that high profile people aren't used to their status being completely and utterly worthless. They simply think they won't catch it (implied: because they're special), and so don't take proper precautions. Trump is a perfect example. In the very press conference where he announced that they're recommending that people wear masks when out in public, he then said that he wasn't going to wear one because he doesn't need to.

Really, oh mighty stable genius? Why is that? The virus doesn't care that you're the President of the United States of America, and no amount of your bluster and lies can change that.

I have a vague memory of having seen an article stating that there are now 8 known strains of SARS-CoV-2. (There were 2 known strains by the time it reached the US.) It is entirely possible, as Tom suggests, that they are not equally infectious nor equally severe.