Port futures
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Robert O.
- Posts: 220
- Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 6:46 pm
- Location: New York, New York, United States of America - USA
Port futures
Can you buy port futures and if so, how?
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Frederick Blais
- Posts: 2744
- Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 10:07 am
- Location: Porto, Portugal
There is a market for port future. Though not as fancy and advertised as the Bordeaux one. Normally your local distributer or wine shop are taking lots that they offer to their clients. You pay a % of the amount today and the rest upon receiving your ports.
Port future is not always a bargain. Recent vintages have proven that you can wait a pay less when the same port goes on sale.
The main reasons to buy en primeur is to secure an allocation of a sepcific vintage and to take the bottle to the cellar as quick as possible to avoid unappropriate aging on the shelves.
I think that the only Port worthy buying en primeur must be Nacional as once it is released, it is rare and its price never goes down. Wait ... if WS score a 100 points port, grab some as they will disapear fast too with hype buyers.
Port future is not always a bargain. Recent vintages have proven that you can wait a pay less when the same port goes on sale.
The main reasons to buy en primeur is to secure an allocation of a sepcific vintage and to take the bottle to the cellar as quick as possible to avoid unappropriate aging on the shelves.
I think that the only Port worthy buying en primeur must be Nacional as once it is released, it is rare and its price never goes down. Wait ... if WS score a 100 points port, grab some as they will disapear fast too with hype buyers.
Living the dream and now working for a Port company
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Moses Botbol
- Posts: 6037
- Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:38 am
- Location: Boston, USA
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Paul Eddy
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:01 am
- Location: Perth , Scotland, United Kingdom - UK
the only reason I buy 'en primeur' or 'futures' is to be sure of the provenance and get them into good storage as quickly as possible. For me this is all important; for others it is price that is more important. The port I have bought has not really gone up in price over the last 5 years but that for me would have been irrelevant as I want to enjoy pristine well stored bottles.
Paul.
Paul.
Port is the wine of the Maritime Left
I am in Paul's camp on this one and I also find Moses and Frederick proffer salient points too.
Provenance over price has its place and describes how I have put my own collection together. I would never deny that I am enthralled by finding a true Port gem at a bargain price, once assured of the provenance. But, I'd rather spend an extra $20 on a bottle to guarantee that 10 years down the road or more, when popping the bottle open for a very special tasting or a celebration with friends/family ... I want to limit to the greatest degree possible ... the disappointment that can come from a bottle purchased from a less than perfect environment. Money then, becomes inconsequential.
Whether purchasing on first tranch en primeur or "pre-arrival" as I begain doing with the 1991 vintage, (I believe this practice only began in the USA with the 1985 vintage ... an interesting tidbit of trivia) there have been vintages like 1994 where I was thrilled I had locked and loaded, early and often. Not only did the prices escalate rather quickly compared to some of the older vintages around at that time for what seems today like stellar pricing. Nonetheless, please don't be fooled and think that only Nacional has been worth purchasing as futures.
In fact, it was not really until the "campaign" of the 2000 Vintage, which was offered as futures (Port, not Bdx!
) that any vintage that I've seen sold as a pre-release or en primeur, wound up being offered below that price after the VPs were released in No. America. I am sure there may have been others in earlier market cycles of the Port trade that took place in the UK market, but not here in the USA. This set precedent and also set off a terrible turn of events in my opinion, which is the reason why today there is so much skepticism amongst Port enthusiasts when it comes to futures. It is not for everybody and there is "risk" at stake. It is not a game to be played, unless thoroughly understood in advance.
As Moses mentioned, there are not going to be any $70 Vintage Ports from a vintage like 2005 that I would recommend in terms of value for money. That would just be a silly expenditure in my opinion. Although 2005 is a solid vintage, it is a far cry from the quality (in the vast majority of cases) offered by the likes of the 2003 and 2000 Vintage Ports. Those two are just to mentioned, to supply comparative perspective. But as Moses said, for that kind of money you can find quality Ports with 2 decades of bottle age and the carrying cost absorbed, usually by a retailer/agent.
That is why when I recommend the 2004 or 2005 Vintage Ports, I make sure to put them in perspective and realize they are not "classic" better known as "generally declared vintages" which seem to have typically maintained their value and seen it increase very differently than the in-between vintages. Therefore, when assessing purchases of an "off vintage" for your near or mid-term drinking pleasure, the quality of Port must also be guaged by its selling price and the inherent value that represents compared to the classics, but also to the Ports that have already aged in the bottle.
Buying on futures is a gamble, in terms of how the price of your bottle or case will escalate or decrease over time. As Paul mentioned though, it really boils down to whether or not you are looking to put away pristine bottles in your cellar and keep them there for the years/decades required to drink them when mature and/or at peak. Or viewing through another viewpoint, would you rather purchase the same wine at a later time paying either more or less, but usually not really sure where the Port has spent its time. If you like to gamble and are not adverse to risk, please by all means do continue to source your Ports from auction.
Just my two cents.
Provenance over price has its place and describes how I have put my own collection together. I would never deny that I am enthralled by finding a true Port gem at a bargain price, once assured of the provenance. But, I'd rather spend an extra $20 on a bottle to guarantee that 10 years down the road or more, when popping the bottle open for a very special tasting or a celebration with friends/family ... I want to limit to the greatest degree possible ... the disappointment that can come from a bottle purchased from a less than perfect environment. Money then, becomes inconsequential.
Whether purchasing on first tranch en primeur or "pre-arrival" as I begain doing with the 1991 vintage, (I believe this practice only began in the USA with the 1985 vintage ... an interesting tidbit of trivia) there have been vintages like 1994 where I was thrilled I had locked and loaded, early and often. Not only did the prices escalate rather quickly compared to some of the older vintages around at that time for what seems today like stellar pricing. Nonetheless, please don't be fooled and think that only Nacional has been worth purchasing as futures.
In fact, it was not really until the "campaign" of the 2000 Vintage, which was offered as futures (Port, not Bdx!
) that any vintage that I've seen sold as a pre-release or en primeur, wound up being offered below that price after the VPs were released in No. America. I am sure there may have been others in earlier market cycles of the Port trade that took place in the UK market, but not here in the USA. This set precedent and also set off a terrible turn of events in my opinion, which is the reason why today there is so much skepticism amongst Port enthusiasts when it comes to futures. It is not for everybody and there is "risk" at stake. It is not a game to be played, unless thoroughly understood in advance.As Moses mentioned, there are not going to be any $70 Vintage Ports from a vintage like 2005 that I would recommend in terms of value for money. That would just be a silly expenditure in my opinion. Although 2005 is a solid vintage, it is a far cry from the quality (in the vast majority of cases) offered by the likes of the 2003 and 2000 Vintage Ports. Those two are just to mentioned, to supply comparative perspective. But as Moses said, for that kind of money you can find quality Ports with 2 decades of bottle age and the carrying cost absorbed, usually by a retailer/agent.
That is why when I recommend the 2004 or 2005 Vintage Ports, I make sure to put them in perspective and realize they are not "classic" better known as "generally declared vintages" which seem to have typically maintained their value and seen it increase very differently than the in-between vintages. Therefore, when assessing purchases of an "off vintage" for your near or mid-term drinking pleasure, the quality of Port must also be guaged by its selling price and the inherent value that represents compared to the classics, but also to the Ports that have already aged in the bottle.
Buying on futures is a gamble, in terms of how the price of your bottle or case will escalate or decrease over time. As Paul mentioned though, it really boils down to whether or not you are looking to put away pristine bottles in your cellar and keep them there for the years/decades required to drink them when mature and/or at peak. Or viewing through another viewpoint, would you rather purchase the same wine at a later time paying either more or less, but usually not really sure where the Port has spent its time. If you like to gamble and are not adverse to risk, please by all means do continue to source your Ports from auction.
Just my two cents.
Ambition driven by passion, rather than money, is as strong an elixir as is Port. http://www.fortheloveofport.com
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Robert O.
- Posts: 220
- Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 6:46 pm
- Location: New York, New York, United States of America - USA
Thanks for your thorough reply, Roy. It's something I'll have to think about. I would like to start laying down ports for the long haul and it will bother me if after 20 years of lying in the cellar they turn out to have serious flaws due to imperfect storage, etc. I suspect i would only buy the very best of a great year on futures. Luckily I FTLOP to give me good port forecasts!