Tom, please know that what follows below is just a mere discussion and neither viewpoint is right or wrong, just our own opinions. It will make for an interesting read (at worst) and a great dialogue (at best) ...
Tom wrote:
In the last decade we have seen a declarable and possibly very good year passed over in the form of 2005. More recently, 2009 is not a year wanted for declaration, but given the climate that prevailed, it is very hard to believe that some superb wines have not been made.
2005 was passed over, but was it any better than a year like 1987?
2000/2003/2007 will remain as the three generally declared vintages of the decade, in my take on things. We know for sure that 2009 won't be declared and after tasting a dozen 2008's so far, I believe the right decision was made with 2007's being declared instead.
That said, there are some pretty terrific 2008's and I've only had a dozen so far, some of which will certainly be met with fanfare by the serious Port consuming geeks like us; while all but ignored by the mainstream Port buyer ("investor/collector"). As for 2009, we'll just have to wait and see after we get a chance to taste them Tom. I too hope they're great.
It would be refreshing to see great Ports declared by those companies that feel they have the two requirements for making VP:
a. the quantity of grapes to make enough Port for the marketplace and back up stock
b. the quality within those grapes
Tom wrote:
2010 may serve to either break or preserve the old order. Despite the economic uncertainties, I am in little doubt that it is badly wanted as a year that can be declared. If it delivers, then the strain on the system will be eased, but if the unsettled weather that has plagued Portugal this year continues, and the vintage fails to make the grade, what then?
Then maybe 2011 will be declared; the same way 1991 was
-- and 1990 wasn't.
Tom wrote:
Do the shippers sit back and hope that 2011 will be better, while the independants launch their 2009's - possibly to public acclaim?
If 2010 winds up not good enough, then the trade will look to the next great year whether that is 2011 or 2012 or 2013. There have been long stretches in rather recent times; for example 1985-1991. Sure many of us know that 1987 was good enough for a full on declaration. But we know the reasons why it wasn't, too. So based on market conditions, sometimes companies wait to declare when times are bad, but grapes are good (2007 declared in 2009 is a simple and pure example of this). I think you are putting too much stock into the theory that 2010 is a make or break year, for the old order. If nothing else, the Port trade has shown its resilience which you are not giving it credit for.
The Port trade has endured over the course of 4+ centuries.
It has survived through:
a. War(s)
b. Revolution(s)
c. The reign of the Marques de Pombal
d. Several deep financial depressions and many more modest economic downturns too
e. Phylloxera
f. The Casa do Douro
g. Several major and a few minor landscape changing acquisitions throughout history as well as some important ones in more recent times
h. All of the above
If 2009 winds up with
"independents launch their 2009's - possibly to public acclaim"
that is a beautiful thing for the Port trade. They are still going to sell Port. The majors will sell their 2nd labels and/or SQVPs and the independents will sell their VPs as well. Bully for everyone.
Do you think that the vast majority of Port consumers have .1% of the awareness about Port declarations that you do? They will buy what they can afford and what they either try for themselves and like ... or hear from those they respect, which IS the next great vintage. I am not sure why you have such a pessimistic view in this regard?
To your last point ...
Tom wrote:
- Or do they tear up the rule book, and allow themselves a fourth declaration of the naughties?
That will depend on what is deemed to be the next great vintage. 2009 ... very unlikely. 2010-2013+ ... we can only wait and see how these harvest years turn out. So I don't see the rule book being torn up over 2009s ... and yes, you can say that would be a "market driven" decision ... unless, the quality is undeniable in the grapes. However, that was not the vibe I got whilst there during the harvest last year or even while there last month. I understand that the weather was favorable, but we know that doesn't always make the difference. So look to the future.
The future is an uncertainty for the Port trade, like any business these days. But based on past performance in dealing with crises, those that have regulated and ruled over the trade, plus the events delineated above ... I am willing to gamble, that the Port trade will be here long after you and I are long gone.
I love when other folks start new threads, especially when they are as original as this one. Thanks again Derek!