Roy's 2006 Douro Growing Season Report

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:32 am

Both BBC and CNN expect the weather to remain fine and sunny throughout their five day forecasts, but the temperatures are expected to fall back sharply to 20C (70F) by the end of the week.

After that, things are not so settled. There's a messy low pressure system projected to form in the mid Atlantic - where it's going to head is not clear at this stage.

It might veer north and miss Portugal altogether, but there's a significant risk of a soaking on the 10th/11th.

Will keep watching!

Tom

Post by **Roy Hersh** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 1:38 am

Christian Seely let me know that the Noval website (look under Port producers on this website for direct link) will have an ongoing harvest report by David Eley that will be updated every few days in September.

Post by **Andy Velebil** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 5:02 am

Tom and Roy,

Thanks for keeping us updated and keep up the great work

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 5:44 pm

Quite interesting to watch the progress of the computer projections - at lunchtime it was not looking at all good, but tonight things are better.

There's now the tail end of a cold front that could generate some rain on Saturday, but probably not on a scale to present a major issue.

The projected altantic depression was evolving in a very threatening manner, but is now being chased by a broad high pressure system from the tropics, and is forecast to be less intense - heading north-west and missing Portugal if we're lucky...

Any word from the hail victims Roy?

Tom

Derek T. · Post by **Derek T.** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:40 am

uncle tom wrote:Quite interesting to watch the progress of the computer projections.....

I take it business is slow in the pyrotechnic world at the moment, Tom?

Derek

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:06 am

I take it business is slow in the pyrotechnic world at the moment, Tom?

No - but getting on with what I should be doing is always a struggle at this time of year....

Tom

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:04 am

The main thrust of the altantic weather system is now projected to head north towards Iceland - the 10th/11th now look set to be damp, misty and humid in the Douro, but without much likelihood of serious rain.

Behind that, a broad high pressure system holds the promise of fine weather for the middle of next week (hopefully!)

However, those who keep an eye on the US hurricane season might like to speculate where the remains of Florence are going to end up...

Tom

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 4:00 am

Although both BBC & CNN are forecasting a dry day today, the rain radar pictures are showing a small area of rain cloud over the Douro at the moment.

There is quite a lot of rain forecast for Spain over the next three days, but Portugal looks likely to escape with little more than light showers. From the middle of next week, good ripening weather should resume 8)

The Atlantic depression I noted a few days ago remains on course, heading north with only it's extreme edges causing any problems.

Tropical storm Florence is expected to remain well out to sea, tracking the US coast in a broad arc. Where it goes after that is the question. It may well steam straight into the UK, giving us a good soaking around the 18th, but there is a risk that it will continue to arc, spoiling the vintage in continental europe...

Will keep watching!

Tom

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 4:26 pm

This morning, both the BBC and CNN 5 day forecasts were a picture of dry serenity - but the weather maps told another story. If the Douro was to escape some rainfall, it would be dodging a bullet.

This evening, the forecasts have been revised to show some rain from a front passing over tomorrow, with some more rain expected on Wednesday.

Hopefully this will not be on a scale to present a serious problem, but some reports from the ground would be welcome...

I am not up to speed with the harvest progress elsewhere in europe, but the immediate weather outlook in Bordeaux is looking pretty miserable, and by the looks of it, a recipe for rot. There is also an expectation of heavy rain over most of Italy later this week, which I am sure they can well do without!

Tropical storm Florence's projected path is continuing to arc round. This is a worry - as it hasn't made significant landfall anywhere, it is likely to be carrying a lot of rain. It remains on course to reach this side of the pond on about the 18th..

Tom

toronto_norm · Post by **toronto_norm** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:58 pm

The forecast for Bordeaux looks pretty dismal according to weather.com. The forecast for Porto, on the other hand, is only for some light rain, which should not be detrimental to the quality. Looking forward to more reports on the 2006 Harvest...birth year of my daughter....

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:44 pm

The angle of Florence's arcing is now projected to be slightly less...

..Is that a big deal?

- Yes

Much too early to be certain, but it means that it is more likely now that I will be the one looking for an umbrella...

Tom

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 11:33 am

It has been raining in the Douro today. How much is hard to guess - can anyone report from the front line?

Florence is projected to fill, spread and pick up speed as it crosses the atlantic - Scotland will probably get the worst soaking, but fronts are projected to radiate off, bringing some rain to much of europe from sunday.

It would be very interesting to know how far advanced the harvest is, and what state the hail damaged quintas are in.

Given the weather, geography and location of the hail damage, I am beginning to wonder if this will be a year that does not see a Taylor declaration for the blend, but does produce a superb Vargellas, or a Taylor blend that is in fact, only Vargellas...

All will be revealed in 18 months...

Tom

Frederick Blais · Post by **Frederick Blais** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 2:47 pm

uncle tom wrote:I

All will be revealed in 18 months...

Tom

It will be a bit earlier then that. As soon as we know if they declare 2005, we'll know that it has 99% of chance not to declare 2006.

I just hope that this year the weather in Portugal will not be as bad as last year when Wilma stood in western Europe bringing 2 weeks of rain!

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:51 pm

The cold water of the north Atlantic is doing a good demolition job on Florence, but a knot of cloud spinning off from the system could bring some significant rain to the Douro on Sunday night.

Next up in the hurricane season is Gordon - already promoted to the status of hurricane (Florence was a mere tropical storm).

Here the weather forecasters differ dramatically - the BBC says the system will swing north towards Greenland, and out of harm's way.

The US National Hurricane Centre has it heading straight for northern Portugal, with likely landfall next Wednesday...

Who to believe? The NHC forecasts for Florence were spot on - although the BBC only differed by a little.

If the NHC are right, the quality of the vintage could come down to the simple question:

'Who picked before the 20th?'

Tom

Post by **Roy Hersh** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:49 am

From an update received a few minutes ago, sent by Cristiano van Zeller:

Now we have a better insight of the weather conditions for 2006. Some areas in the Douro, mainly in the Pinhão valley and the Torto valley were hit in June by a big hale storm. Vines were damaged but not to the point to compromise the quality. Just the quantity.

Rather hot summer, very hot and dry indeed at the end of August and beginning of September, diminishing even further the potential volume of some areas, mainly the Douro Superior and part of the Cima Corgo. Grapes are generally very sane.

Just one day of rain early this week, with no influence in the quality, just allowing the temperatures to come down substantially from the middle 30’s Celsius to lower 20’s and below.

Harvest starting dates mixed depending on the regions. Some delayed start to allow grapes to dry and mature a bit more harmonious.

Still far too early to say anything about quality of the year. Fermentations just starting. I hope this is OK.

_____________________________________________________

This tidbit in the midst of an email with Richard Mayson, which I am sure he won't mind if I share (this part anyway):

Things are rather challenging here this year due to a late burst of extreme heat in late August. I have spoken to a few people in the Douro and, needless to say, I don't think we will be looking at a declared vintage in 2006!

toronto_norm · Post by **toronto_norm** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:43 pm

Roy Hersh wrote: This tidbit in the midst of an email with Richard Mayson, which I am sure he won't mind if I share (this part anyway):

Things are rather challenging here this year due to a late burst of extreme heat in late August. I have spoken to a few people in the Douro and, needless to say, I don't think we will be looking at a declared vintage in 2006!

There must be more to the vintage than this. A late burst of heat isn't going to make that much of difference in the quality of the vintage, will it?

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:19 am

Richard Mayson got to know the Douro as a geography student at university, collecting data for his thesis. Few people have a better knowledge and understanding of the terrain, climate and growing season of the region as a whole, so his observation counts for a lot.

- It's a pity he doesn't contribute here.

Tom

toronto_norm · Post by **toronto_norm** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:07 pm

I certainly hope that Richard turns out to be incorrect....hopefully, at least some single quintas this year!

Thanks, Tom.

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:44 pm

If we don't get a general declaration, we may (hopefully) see some good SQ's from the Douro Superior, where the picking generally starts earlier, and the quintas seem to have escaped the hail storm.

Vesuvio, Taylor's Vargellas and Cockburn's Canais are among the better known from that area.

Tom

Tom Archer · Post by **Tom Archer** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:10 am

The only good news on the weather front is that Gordon's progress across the Atlantic was slower than expected, giving the quintas an extra day to gather their grapes.

With it's eye a couple of hundred miles off shore, it is also veering sharply to the north (towards the UK).

However, four wet days are now in prospect, and whilst warm sunshine is forecast for Monday, this must be bad news for the grapes that have yet to be harvested.

With the harvest reportedly starting very early this year, I wonder how much is left to be gathered. With several days warning of this weather system, there has probably been some intense activity over the last few days.

Tom