Port sales are down so far in 2008

[Roy Hersh]

I sure hope you are right, but I'll take a wait and see 'tude. Not holding my breath while doing so though.

If it gets as gloomy as you envision, do you believe there will be another round of "consolidation" or at least a few key acquisitions, during that gray period?

[Tom Archer]

If it gets as gloomy as you envision, do you believe there will be another round of "consolidation" or at least a few key acquisitions, during that gray period?

Possibly, but we are currently coming out of a period of absurdly easy credit and into one where money is becoming extremely tight. Finding the funds for takeovers will not be easy.

It looks probable that some familiar names will have taken on more debt than they can handle in a depressed market, and will find themselves in difficulty. It is less certain whether the other names will want to take them over in their entirety, or simply cherry pick the best quintas and wine stocks, allowing the brand name to vanish.

The price of property in the Douro has become totally unrealistic in recent years, soaring to levels that are out of all proportion to its ability to generate revenue. The inevitable correction will cause hardship for some, and opportunities for others.

I suspect that the biggest casualties will be among those who have embraced the rush to produce table wines - in a world where there is an excess supply of red wine, investing in production in a region that has difficult production conditions, relatively high labour costs, and only a modest reputation in global markets; seems a very risky strategy, especially when you consider that the EU's eastern enlargement will probably force the abandonment of subsidies.

We shall see!

Tom

[Mark DaSilva]

I feel it. Sales are down, but all my sales reps say everyone is down. Disposable income is not necessarily going the way of booze - despite past years.

Usually, alcohol is unnaffected by these trends. Can't say this is happening now...

[Roy Hersh]

Mark,

Good to have a retailer's point of view here. Welcome back!!! :hello:

[Andy Velebil]

I feel it. Sales are down, but all my sales reps say everyone is down. Disposable income is not necessarily going the way of booze - despite past years.

Usually, alcohol is unnaffected by these trends. Can't say this is happening now...

Mark
Great hearing from you, hope all has been well?

I've heard the same thing from several retailers in my area...may be a plus to us consumers to force down prices a bit.