An early discussion of 2007 Vintage Ports

[Derek T.]

AXA own Noval - look what's happened to their share price recently...

Somehow I doubt that the purchase of Quinta do Noval has had anything to do with AXA's current woes...

...but what if AXA's current woes might impact the destiny of Noval :help:

[Eric Menchen]

...but what if AXA's current woes might impact the destiny of Noval :help:

We FTLOPers put together a bid? What did AXA buy it for? US$ 16 million or less as I recall from another thread.

[Tom Archer]

Fred said:

Market in the occident might be unstable but the doors of the spice route is opening again. Russia too is becoming a big players.

IVDP Table 12 (http://www.ivdp.pt/en/docs/Porto/Table%2012.pdf) shows the 25 largest consumers of premium port, accounting for over 94% of all VP sales, yet the list does not include Russia, China or India.

If you listed the 25 countries with the worst financial difficulties, it would be a remarkably similar list!

Tom

[Tom Archer]

We FTLOPers put together a bid? What did AXA buy it for? US$ 16 million or less as I recall from another thread.

It would be interesting to see Noval's accounts - as they are a subsidiary of a quoted company, they are probably in the public domain..

Tom

[Derek T.]

It would be interesting to see Noval's accounts - as they are a subsidiary of a quoted company, they are probably in the public domain..

It would be a small miracle if the published accounts of a relatively small subsidiary in a large listed company actually reflected the reality of the business conducted under the name of the sub.

[Roy Hersh]

I agree Derek. You'd never get the transparency requisite to have a real clue, if the Corp. were based here in the USA ... that is for sure. But let's not even go there!

and thanks to mergers, take-overs etc

Tom wrote:
That is proving the death of many companies in the current downturn, as the debt incurred in the process of taking over other companies in the good days comes back to haunt them.

AXA own Noval - look what's happened to their share price recently..

I would agree with Glenn's take on this.

Somehow I doubt that the purchase of Quinta do Noval has had anything to do with AXA's current woes...

When you look at the Port companies that have purchased other shippers businesses since 2000 (quite a few indeed) ... I can't can't think of a single one of the companies that did the acquiring of weaker firms ... in financial distress today. Tom, if you can name just one, I'd love to hear who that might be. Certainly AXA is not a valid example.

[Roy Hersh]

Tom wrote:

so the only way I can see myself buying at release is if the producers are willing to sell to me direct, and cut out the distribution chain, which appears to be making more money than they do.

Wow Tom, if the Port shippers are willing to sell their new release to you directly, thereby screwing over their own distribution chain, just so they could have your loyal business ... I will swim across the Atlantic, walk to the UK and then bow deeply at your feet ... in honour of this accomplishment. :help:

I hope you were stating the above, tongue in cheek, (just as I responded in kind).

[Tom Archer]

Tom, if you can name just one, I'd love to hear who that might be. Certainly AXA is not a valid example.

The history of the port trade is littered with companies that have come unstuck financially, and in the present downturn, it would be very surprising if some of those who borrowed heavily to expand, when money was cheap, (especially to invest in table wine production) did not now get into difficulties.

My point about AXA is that they are in no position to inject capital into Noval, and if things get much worse, might go out of business, resulting in the sale of the property.

I will swim across the Atlantic, walk to the UK and then bow deeply at your feet

I might hold you to that - best start swimming lessons..

Actually, I think the distribution chain deserves to be screwed, but I don't expect the shippers will come round to that conclusion overnight.

However, when things get tough, sacred cows get slaughtered, and I'm not talking about buying just one or two cases..

Tom

[Roy Hersh]

Yes I realize you'd load up a truck if they'd let you.

Now, let's please return to the saner topic of buying 2007 VPs if priced reasonably[/b]. I have found the answers to this question that have stayed on topic, very enlightening and I can assure you the Port trade is reading this thread with great interest!

There are not many other places they can get such candid feedback from some of their most ardent supporters, whether collectors or avid consumers.

[Frederick Blais]

Tom, for orient market, they are mainly buying top quality brands and Vintage, just like they do with Bordeaux or Burgundy. It is a growing market for high quality product, the volume it represents it probably not enough to show on those stats tables but it is big enough for some companies to decide wether or not they would declare a Vintage Port from top year as they can buy it.

As for Axa, the insurance company and the wine branch Axa Millesime are managed independanlty, with the prices growing of their Bordeaux properties, I don't think they have much problems on this side at the moment.

Roy, happy to read we can help those decision makers with anything we can write here, thanks for giving us this opportunity! nice job my friend!

[Roy Hersh]

C'est mon plaisir, mon ami.