Derek's talking sow-wash
But seriously, I disagree with Derek's thoughts. The way I see the port market in the UK over the last couple of years is that prices for very old (say, pre WW2) bottles of port have increased substantially over the last 3 years. 3 years ago, I bought a dozen bottles from 4 different retailers of wine which varied from Dow 1908 through to Sandeman 1927 and paid under £150 per bottle. If I could find the same bottles today, I would expect to be paying around £400 per bottle. Auction prices are not yet as high as retail, but they have also increased substantially.
Older, mature port - say 1945 through to 1960 has also increased in price. 1950, 1960 and 1970 are currently experiencing the 2010 anniversary explosion in price but ignoring these years as atypical, I would suggest that prices for these wines have doubled at retail and auction in the last 3 years.
Younger, mature port is readily available, but has also increased in price and - I believe - has roughly doubled. Where I used to be happy to pay £20-22 a bottle for my Warre 1983 / 1985 I am now resentfully paying £40-45. When I compare this to the pricing of Warre 2007 (around £40, duty paid), I think consumers are being given a straightforward choice - for the same price do you wish to drink a mature 35 year-old port or a young and fruity 3 year-old port. I enjoy both and buy both. I also suspect that in the next few years, less mature port will come to the secondary market and prices will continue to rise as a consequence.
The supply of Port from the '80s held in the original shippers' cellars is also running low. I believe that the last Fonseca 1985 to be released by TPF recently hit the UK and sold out, despite being offered at roughly a 20% premium to the then current market price. Since that tranche was sold, prices for Fonseca 1985 have stayed firm.
2007 vintage port has sold well in the UK, although I do not know what sort of volumes were offered to the UK market. I know that several shippers have sold out their entire UK first and second allocations (Noval and Graham being the largest two names I know of). Most of the sales were in small parcels - people like us buying a case or a half-case of our favourite couple of producers.
But there will be some bargains around. Port always goes through a difficult phase when it doesn't taste very good and has quite a few years to wait before it regains its attractiveness. During this taste-trough, prices are often depressed as the market size reduces - retailers don't want to sell port to customers who won't enjoy it and neither do they want to tie capital up in maturing port. If you can be in the right place, at the right time, there are bargains to be had. During 2009, the 1997s from some producers sold for bargain prices - Eira Velha for £11 a bottle, for example. My cloudy crystal ball says that during 2010, prices for mature vintage port will continue to increase slowly, that the 2007 prices will be managed through the volume released, and that prices for port in its closed down period will continue to offer opportunities in all but the top names. We may also see some opportunities towards the end of the year if any of the birth-year retailers find that they have over-stocked with 1950, 1960 or 1970.
Outside vintage port, I have to tip my hat to Taylor Fladgate. I suspect that they have dominated the UK retail market this Christmas with the volume of half bottles of unfiltered Croft 2004 LBV (bottled 2009) that has been available through Tesco at prices around £3-4 per half bottle. At these prices, I have not been able to resist whenever I see them on the shelf. This is a delightful port, which offers plenty at the moment and will offer plenty more over the next 10 years. Perhaps we will see an increased volume of quality LBV and Crusted Ports over the next few years and the volume of newly released vintage port be held back a little to manage the balance between cash flow and ultimate margin.
And I'll also add my personal plea - I would love to see some of the Port producers selling at least within Europe off a cellar list. That should mean lower prices for us consumers and better margin for the producers, instead of the system where I have to pay for the importer and retailer's costs as well as the efforts of the people who are making the wines in the first place and who I would like to see make the most profit from their efforts.
![[help.gif]](./images/smilies/help.gif "Help!"){kind=small}
- I agree with Moses that release prices of young VP are not attractive to those who want something to drink now. In the UK, and with the exception of really stellar VPs, you can quite easily buy ports from most shippers from all classic vintages from 1970 on for the same or less than 2003/2007. With the current economic uncertainty that must surely be having an effect of what people are likely to buy.