For The Love Of Port

I am not wishing bad vibes on any of the EU countries that are struggling. That said, having paid nearly 1.50 on some trips to Europe and with 3 planned visits to Europe in the next 8 months.

It is thrilling to see the Euro come down to 1.35 and even the GBP @ 1.54 is looking like a bargain compared to what we've seen on visits in the past 5 years.

I know this is based on the weakness of those currencies as there is no basis for the strength of the USD at this point. To listen to half the Americans in the USA, the sky is falling and our economy is worse off than last Sept. Of course the other half thinks they are nuts (and vice versa of course) as the NYSE had hit 6600 and has remained above 10,000 for some months now. Either way, I REALLY DON'T GIVE A DARN why the USD is seemingly improving, just happy to see this changing, and for the first time in ages that it is this low.

Who knows, maybe even better Port buying opportunities lie ahead.

one word, really an acronym....PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain)

Andy Velebil wrote:one word, really an acronym....PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain)

PIGS includes Italy, not Ireland. When expanded as PIIGS it then includes both Italy and Ireland.

But yes, it's very nice to see the Euro coming down relative to the Dollar. Now if it will just stay that way (or go lower!) until the 2010 Harvest Tour!

Whoa! 1.33 for the Euro and 1.49 for the Pound (GBP) vs. the dollar. I'm loving this trend.

Additionally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average above the 10,800 mark (remember it was at 6,600 just about this time last year) ... and improvement in the employment figures, maybe we've really begun climbing out of the major slump.

This is the lowest the Euro has been in about a year if not more:

1.31754

I am thrilled with the timing as the Fortification Tour is less than 3 weeks away!

Looking to understand the dynamics better:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0 ... mesKrugman

Roy - Todays WSJ has an interesting article on Portugal and the state of the economy althuogh they mention texile and manufacturing there was no mention of the Port trade. Can you get one of you contacts from Portugal to shed some light on how things are going over there with regard to the Port industry and will it yield cheaper price (not just from a currency exchange) or will it yield less production -- therefore possibly higher prices ?? Also -- much of the "new" processing facilities I've read about being built over there (in your newsletters) had to be financed somehow -- are there any port houses who extended themselves too much ??? A lot of questions here but all of interest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/05/busin ... ss&emc=rss

The Euro briefly dropped below $1.30 today and some analysts are predicting that it could drop as low as $1.20 by the end of the summer... just in time for the Harvest Tour!

It's more than briefly below 1.30 now... it's definitely below 1.30. It looks like the low was around 1.296

I love the timing!

Now if it will just go even lower by the end of Sept. I'll be happy.

1.286 at the moment. Unreal. Love to see it float to about 1.25 now that would make Port & Madeira buying very lucrative!

Rumors circulating are if things keep going south it may be closer to 1 to 1 ratio by the end of the year. I personally don't think it will go that low, but I'd settle for 1.01 to 1 Seriously, if it even drops to below 1.20 I'd be a very happy person.

Now below 1.27

The Euro is down to 1.264 Now if it just keeps on going down till October

If this keeps up I'm going to have to give you guys my shopping list to take with you in October

Looks like the last time we had dollar-euro parity was December 2002. I don't expect it again too soon, but it can certainly happen. Too bad this seems to be a function of "who screws up more" as opposed to "who is really doing well."

I am actually bullish on the USD vs. the Euro through the end of the 3rd quarter. We'll see. If US jobs continue to pick up as they have the last 3 months, slowly but surely the dollar will come from a point of strength. It will take the Fed moving the interest rates up 1x for things to move in the right direction.

1.256 right now.

The Euro dipped below $1.24 briefly today... it's back up to about $1.2440 right now but there's still a couple of hours left in the financial day for it to dive again.

Good timing for those on the Fortification Tour!