An early discussion of 2007 Vintage Ports

[Roy Hersh]

I had lunch with a good friend who just so happens to oversee No. America and other markets for The Fladgate Partnership. I know he won't mind if I repeat that he is a frequent "lurker" here, but says he has not time to post.

I didn't even harrass him for that response, as I was just glad that he is reading.

So I am sure he'll see this. He told me today that not only are we 2 months away before TFP company ... which is responsible for Taylor, Fonseca and Croft ... makes any announcement of whether or not they will be declaring a 2007, but it is still a month shy of them putting together the components that go into a "final blend" that becomes the 2007 VPs.

That said, others have "unofficially" stated that they will definitely be declaring this vintage and I promised to not mention any names! So whether this is a full blown general declaration, as I predict OR it becomes a split declaration with others going the 2008 direction, it is certainly going to be interesting.

More importantly:

If the price is favorable, would you be a buyer of 2007 Vintage Ports?

[Andy Velebil]

If the price is favorable, would you be a buyer of 2007 Vintage Ports?

Yes, in this poor economy I will only buy new releases that have good prices. As things are going down the toilet economically I have tightened the purse strings and am much more picky at what prices I buy things at. So if the 2007's come out at a favorable price then I have no problem buying.

[Glenn E.]

Given my recent experiences at tastings... I really don't know. What I am discovering is that I do like Vintage Port, but only with a lot of age. At least 40 years, and 50 is better. Adding that to my current age results in a number that I may never see, and even if I do I may not be in any shape to enjoy a nice glass of 2007 VP.

So for me, I think that 2007 is too young. We're past my "last" declaration, though I might pick up a bottle or two to drink young.

[Derek T.]

I am not likely to buy 2007 on release unless the price is ridiculously low. If I do buy I will more than likely go for those that are considered to be the ones that will mature early so that I have a chance of drinking some of them. Like Glenn, I don't see the point in buying new wines that will take 30-40 years to reach their peak as I am sure my nurse will not allow me to drink very much Nacional 2007 in the care home when I'm 85

[Tom Archer]

I think it is much healthier to work on the basis that you will live forever, so I would buy IF the price is right.

But there we have a huge problem. 100 years ago, port 'for laying down' was approximately one third of the price of port that had been cellared for a further twenty years. That was entirely rational, given that storage space does not come free, and tied up capital is expected to work for its living.

Those in the UK who invested in the 2003 vintage at release, paid for professional storage and now sell at auction, will typically recover less than half their outlay - an appalling return.

It is very hard to see release prices lower than those of 2003, as that would incur too much loss of face; so the only way I can see myself buying at release is if the producers are willing to sell to me direct, and cut out the distribution chain, which appears to be making more money than they do. Check out the wholesale prices on Table 14 on the IVDP site, (not forgetting that they are per litre, and not per bottle) - before you buy..

http://www.ivdp.pt/en/docs/Porto/Table%2014.pdf

Tom

[Eric Menchen]

Those in the UK who invested in the 2003 vintage at release, paid for professional storage and now sell at auction, will typically recover less than half their outlay - an appalling return.

But similar to many of my other investments over the same period.

[Tom Archer]

But similar to many of my other investments over the same period.

We have yet to see major falls in the UK auction price for port. The problem is not borne of recent economic woes.

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

But similar to many of my other investments over the same period.

We have yet to see major falls in the UK auction price for port. The problem is not borne of recent economic woes.

Tom

But I've seen some significant drops in the retail prices recently and have taken advantage of that by buying some stuff.

[Andy Velebil]

I think it is much healthier to work on the basis that you will live forever, so I would buy IF the price is right.

Tom

Here Here, I agree so never stop buying at least a little bit :!:

[David Spriggs]

I think it is much healthier to work on the basis that you will live forever

LOL!

You never know, but I suspect I will not be buying. I'm passing on just about everything these days (including almost all my mailing lists that Ihave been on: Screaming Eagle, etc).
-Dave-

[Frederick Blais]

Even though the 2007 are looking really interesting, unless there is a special launching price here in Quebec, I'll probably not rush to buy them appart from a couple of favourites.

[Erik Wiechers]

All depends on the price when released. I bought a case of 2005 Niepoort when it was just released and now i see i can buy it much cheaper in the stores.

And......i think prices wont go up very much in a 20 years time period, so if i want to try a bottle of 2007 in 2027 i assume that the price, compared to the present day price, wont be that much of a difference.

[Tom Archer]

Although rumours of an impending general declaration are many and well sourced, any producer reading this thread should note the conspicuous lack of enthusiasm from their most loyal consumers; unless of course, they are prepared to radically re-price their products, or offer product at wholesale prices direct.

Historically, launching a general declaration into a serious recession is without precedent. No sooner had the '80 vintage been declared in '82, the economies of both the UK and US went somwhat sour (but trivial by today's problems). Nevertheless, sales at release were pretty dismal.

To the elite in Brussels, suggesting that some members of the eurozone might elect to leave the single currency gains a furious reaction, but a look at the economic woes of the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) suggests that they have more to gain than they have to lose from de-coupling. Moreover, it is hard to see a way through their problems while they remain locked into the currency.

Much of the theoretical talk has centred on when they might be forced into such a move, but the possibility that they might jump before they are pushed - possibly in unison, cannot be ruled out.

Nor is it quite such an impossible thing to do as some in the pro-euro camp maintain. All euro banknotes have a serial number that starts with a letter, identifying the country of origin.

A split would immediately result in a devaluation, probably a substantial one, making exports much more competitive.

The great Port pricing problem - not to mention the Douro table wines - would be greatly eased.

Tom

[Ronald Wortel]

I decided that I need to invest more in older ports instead of young ones. That said: I will most likely buy some 2007. But I wil be picky, because I plan to buy more 2008 than 2007.

[Adam F]

For me it comes down to looking at some favourites if the qaulity/price is right. Right now looking at the economies I think that it would be a brave house to declare.

[*123]

I have to partially agree with Glenn. Considering the small amount of port and similar wines I drink these days (3-6 bottles a year max), my age, and preferences, I think it makes more sense to buy a few older bottles than investing in new vintages. Now if I were 40. . . .

[Ronald Wortel]

Right now looking at the economies I think that it would be a brave house to declare.

I'm not so sure about that. The major port houses have had some good years, and thanks to mergers, take-overs etc. there are some pretty solid players. I don't think these shippers mind too much keeping the best part of the production in stock, in order to release it when demand gets better. They can release a small part now, without having to lower their prices much. Smaller producers, dependent on the cash-flow of immediate sales, do not have the luxery of keeping these long-term stocks. They may have a difficult time getting their Vintage soldand I wouldn't be surprised if we see some decrease in price here. Or even Vintage quality juice being used for LBV because that's easier to sell.

[Tom Archer]

and thanks to mergers, take-overs etc

That is proving the death of many companies in the current downturn, as the debt incurred in the process of taking over other companies in the good days comes back to haunt them.

AXA own Noval - look what's happened to their share price recently..

Tom

[Frederick Blais]

Market in the occident might be unstable but the doors of the spice route is opening again. Russia too is becoming a big players. Lets not assume that if we can't take it, there should not be any declaration. The big players are already well positionned in those market and its waiting for a new declaration to get volumes there as when the 2003 was declared the interest was not as high.

[Glenn E.]

AXA own Noval - look what's happened to their share price recently...

Somehow I doubt that the purchase of Quinta do Noval has had anything to do with AXA's current woes...