What 200x vintage should I be buying?

[Eric Menchen]

For a while my cellar had more 1997 than anything else, and a lot of 1994. Now it seems a lot of good deals on 2003s have made that my biggest year. Trying to disregard hype for 2007, I'm wondering what I should be buying. Right now my ratio for 2000 : 2003 : 2005 : 2007 is roughly 1 : 2 : 1 : 1. Sure, some more 2007 would be good, and I plan to buy several names that I don't have yet, but perhaps I should be filling in 2000s before they become scarce? Or maybe 2003 is just that good and I should buy more of that? What do you think?

[Glenn E.]

Personally I think that '03 and '07 are the best years of that bunch, but it's hard to pass on '05 because they're such good deals. Roy and I have discussed it casually before, and I think that 2005 would have been generally declared if it hadn't followed so hard on the heels of 2000 and 2003.

My ratio for the same years is roughly 1 : 2 : 1 : 2 but I'm hoping that will change in favor of 2007 in the near term. I have two different 2007 bottlings that I'm still looking for, and if I can find them at a reasonable price I'll pick up 6-packs. I also have a 2000 that I'd like to find (but I haven't been searching very hard). The real problem for me, as always, is storage space.

Ultimately I guess if I were you (and had sufficient storage space), I'd try to even things out. Those are all good years and somewhere down the road you're probably going to want a nice selection of all of them.

[Roy Hersh]

Eric,

IMHO, it really depends on the producer and from which vintage. There are some stellar 2000s which should take up space in every serious Port collector's cellar. Financial woes within the Port sales arena have kept pricing for the only '000 vintage EVER, very low and in some cases below release prices. I can assure you that in the almost 2 decades that preceeded the y2k vintage ... although I really didn't get started with Port until a couple of years into the 1980s, that pricing had never done anything but continue upwards. Until after Sept. 11th and the tech bubble burst taking place in somewhat close proximity ... it was unheard of in my Port buying daze (er, days) that a VP would sell for less than first tranch pricing en primeur in London. That's where and how, I "used to" buy all of my young VP futures. But when a few years later, I saw IN THE USA ... Fonseca '00 being sold here for less than I paid in the UK ... ON FIRST TRANCH!!!! ... i was done with en primeur strategies/buying for good. Never again!

Now with that spewing over historical spilled milk behind me ... I strongly suggest you up your holdings of 2000 and 2003. I've been on the record with the following comment, early but maybe not that often. "2000 is to 1963 as 2003 is to 1966." I've read others parroting my words/advice and alluding to that quote of mine, but I know exactly wherein it was first written.

In closing Eric, I know others may preach sage advice to backfill whilst vintages like 1977, 1970, 1966 etc. are still relatively available, but given your age ... and having a wife that also really enjoys Port, my own opinion solely directed to respond to your specific question ... is to go out and fill up on 2000 and 2003 NOW, while they are going for a song.

I look forward to reading many contrarian views here and that's totally cool, as everyone will have their own opinions. Some are made from reading and with little empirical personal knowledge of what took place in the actual marketplace AT THE TIME, no less the VPs themselves and I respect them nonetheless. But for those that have been riding the tides, the ebb and flow of the Port market is a very interesting one and a few people who I greatly respect in this regard ... (who still post here on occasion) are David Spriggs, Uncle Tom and Shawn Denkler.

Not that other's opinions are any less valid, but having the experience of buying through a number of up/down cycles is VERY different than reading about it. Although this may sound like "snobbery" or whatever ... it is no different than when I used to ask people who in the early days of came off like knowledgeable experts and denounced a VP or an entire vintage ... without ANY tasting experience whatsoever. I have nothing against someone in their mid-late 20's making those types of assertions because they are well read, but there is NO SUBSTITUTE for personal experience. That is why, in EVERY vintage report I've ever written, there is always a proviso telling folks that my opinion is that of just one man, to do everything in their power to try the wines for themselves and follow their own palates.

Just my impassioned FWIW. I hope it comes off in the spirit in which it was meant, as I know my tone does not come across here well sometimes and at times it can be misconstrued.

Cheers!

[Eric Menchen]

There are some stellar 2000s which should take up space in every serious Port collector's cellar.

Which do you put in that category? I'm going to guess Dow, Graham, Fonseca, Niepoort, Taylor, and maybe Quinta do Vesuvio. Of those I only have Dow and Niepoort at the moment. I've been watching for Fonseca and Taylor, but haven't jumped yet. Waiting on this thread I instead recently bid on some 2003 Taylor.

[Roy Hersh]

Eric,

Please dig up my 2000 Vintage Port Forecast and you will see my ratings and rankings and I stand by those, today. If you can't find it here on go to Words About Port, on the Robin Garr website ... www.wineloverspage.com and you'll find it there. Before FTLOP, I ran a weekly "virtual" wine chat on Robin's wine website, from 2000-2005 and had many articles published there as well. I don't know about now, but at the time, it was the busiest wine website in the world. I'm finishing the newsletter today or I'd go dig it up for you myself.

[Al B.]

... it was unheard of in my Port buying daze (er, days) that a VP would sell for less than first tranch pricing en primeur in London. That's where and how, I "used to" buy all of my young VP futures. But when a few years later, I saw IN THE USA ... Fonseca '00 being sold here for less than I paid in the UK ...

In the last few years, say since 1994, top quality (Taylor / Fonseca / Graham / Dow / Noval etc) newly released vintage port has been sold en primeur in the UK for £30-40 per bottle. Without fail, when these wines have closed up 3-5 years after first release (5-7 years from the vintage), they have sold in the secondary market for less than release unless Parker or someone with similar perceived authority has awarded them with a 100 point rating. The lesser wines have sometimes collapsed in price - I was able to pick up at retail a case of 1997 Smith Woodhouse for £97 a couple of years ago. With careful and opportunistic buying, you can find 5-10 year old vintage port offered at significant discounts to the initial release price and these are real buying opportunities.

But I don't think that these sorts of opportunities will be around for much longer. I think people like us will quickly mop up these sorts of bargains with the result that port prices will firm for these youthful ports. In addition, it would not surprise me if the shippers decided to release smaller quantities over a longer period to try and manage the dip in price that has been seen for immature youthful ports after a few years - I have no evidence to be able to say whether this is happening, but it is what I would do if I had the opportunity to do so.

So, if you see a potential bargain, go for it. I would recommend that you don't look to see which vintage it is from, but be price and opportunity driven rather than aim for a specific vintage - or at least, that's what I would do!

[Eric Menchen]

... So, if you see a potential bargain, go for it. I would recommend that you don't look to see which vintage it is from, but be price and opportunity driven rather than aim for a specific vintage - or at least, that's what I would do!

Thanks for your full perspective. On the last part I quoted, that's largely what I've been doing, and that's what has led to my current situation. There have been some real good 2003 deals, a few 2007 opportunities, a good number of 2005 for lower prices (not as high priority for me since not a general declaration), and hardly anything for 2000.

They say that once a year it is good to look at your retirement portfolio, reevaluate, and rebalance. I'm trying to do the same for my Portfolio.

[David Spriggs]

I'm biased. I *love* the 2003 vintage. Even the LBVs are on another level. 2000 is very consistant, but 2003 just "pushes my buttons". I opened a 2003 Niepoort Vintage Port last night and it was spectacular. What more would you look for in a port than that wine? Amazing stuff. I could go on and on with what I like in 2003 (Fonseca, Noval, Nieport, Portal, Croft, etc, etc). Again 2000 is great, but I prefer 2003.
-Dave-

[Eric Menchen]

Found the 2000 forecast: http://www.wineloverspage.com/port/2000forecast.phtml
That was a very nice read. Besides the ratings and details, I found the comparisons to other vintages for specific labels particularly enlightening since I've now tasted a number of them, e.g. comparing the Smith Woodhouse to the 1983, the Taylor to the 1994, etc.

[Glenn E.]

It appears that my memory of my cellar was... um... affected by my Port drinking. Yeah... that's the ticket...

I have significantly more 2003 than I remembered before, including 5 magnums, and less 2000 than I thought. (Which is due to an order error, actually, as I picked up a 6-pack of 1997 Niepoort at one point thinking that I was ordering the 2000.)

So as it turns out I'm heavily invested in 2003, with my rough ratio being closer to 1 : 7 : 1 : 2.

Looks like I need to stock up on 2000 and 2005!

[Roy Hersh]

Eric,

Glad you were able to find it easily and enjoyed the read.

[Tom D.]

Wow, I am really happy to report having just found some 2000 Niepoort at HiTime for what seems to me like a nice price ($65 plus shipping). Not sure how I overlooked it there before, I thought I'd priced it just about everywhere. I had only one of these in my cellar (and just a 375 at that) and have been looking to pick up a little more after tasting it a couple years ago.

I bought the only three bottles HiTime had in stock. It's one of the few post-1994 VP's I've been looking to add more of, and I think I'll enjoy drinking it at any time, even if I don't live to taste it at full maturity...

This was a phone order, but if you're ever in Newport Beach, HiTime it is worth a visit. If you go, wear a jacket -- as I recall, it's kind of like a giant walk-in cellar, with practically the whole store cooled to cellar temp and a nice variety of all kinds of wine.